RTRS: UPDATE 1-US gas futures slip for second day ahead of EIAs
* Front month down for second day, inventories bloated
* Warm weather on tap for consuming regions
* Recent production, drilling rig data supportive
* Coming Up: EIA natgas storage data Thursday
(Adds cash prices, updates throughout)
By Eileen Houlihan
NEW YORK, June 7 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures
slipped early Thursday, edging lower for a second straight day
ahead of government storage data that should show another
healthy build to already bloated inventories.
But warm weather on tap for consuming regions in the Midwest
and Northeast should boost cooling demand and supportive
production and gas drilling rig data were both expected to limit
more losses.
Most traders and analysts expect weekly inventory data from
the U.S. Energy Information Administration to show a build of
about 56 billion cubic feet when it is released today at about
10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT), a Reuters poll showed.
Stocks rose an adjusted 81 bcf for the same week last year,
and on average over the past five years have gained 99 bcf that
week.
Front-month July natural gas futures on the New York
Mercantile Exchange were at $2.399 per million British
thermal units in early trading, down 2.2 cents, or about 1
percent.
The nearby contract lost 1 percent on Wednesday after rising
about 5 percent in the prior two sessions.
Futures hit a 3-1/2-month high of $2.759 in mid-May, but
traders said the big rise removed gas from favor over coal for
power generation.
But since posting a 10-year low of $1.902 twice in late
April, nearby futures are up 26 percent on signs that record
production was finally slowing and demand picking up as more
electric utilities switched from coal to gas.
In the cash market, gas bound for the NYMEX delivery point
Henry Hub NG-W-HH in Louisiana was heard early at $2.33 on
volume near 540 million cubic feet, down 8 cents from
Wednesday's $2.41 average.
Early Hub cash deals were also done at a 9-cent discount to
the front-month contract, easing from deals done late Wednesday
at a 6-cent discount.
Gas on the Transco pipeline at the New York citygate
NG-NYCZ6 was heard early near $2.47 on volume near 204 mmcf,
down 7 cents from Wednesday's average of $2.54.
DESPITE LIGHTER BUILDS, STORAGE STILL BLOATED
Weekly gas storage data last week was well below average for
the seventh time in eight weeks, but stocks remain at record
highs for this time of year.
Last week's EIA report showed U.S. natural gas inventories
rose 71 bcf to 2.815 trillion cubic feet, still 35 percent above
last year and 35 percent above the five-year average.
(Storage graphic: link.reuters.com/mup44s)
The surplus to last year has dropped 17 percent from
late-March peaks, but concerns remain that the still large glut
will drive prices lower this summer as storage caverns fill.
The storage surplus to last year will have to be cut by at
least another 480 bcf to avoid breaching the government's
4.1-tcf estimate of capacity. Stocks peaked last year in
November at a record 3.852 tcf.
PRODUCTION FALLING FROM RECORD
EIA data last week also showed gas production was finally
dropping from January's record high, with two straight monthly
declines.
The EIA said U.S. natural gas production fell 0.4 percent in
March to 71.76 bcf as producers continued to scale back drilling
in the face of low prices. It was a second monthly decline after
a revised 1 percent fall in February.
In addition, Baker Hughes data on Friday showed the
gas-directed rig count fell by six to a 12-1/2 year low of 588.
The 37 percent drop in dry gas drilling - since peaking at 936
in October - has stirred talk producers were finally getting
serious about stemming the flood of supplies.
But the shift away from dry gas to higher-value shale oil
and shale gas liquid plays still produces plenty of associated
gas that ends up in the market after processing. That has slowed
the overall drop in dry gas output.
(Rig graphic: r.reuters.com/dyb62s)
MORE FUNDAMENTALS
The National Weather Service's six- to 10-day outlook issued
on Wednesday again called for above-normal readings for much of
the nation, with normal or below-normal readings in Florida and
the West.
Nuclear power plant outages were running at about 16,600
megawatts, or 16 percent, on Thursday, up from about 15,100 MW
out a year ago and a five-year outage rate of about 10,900 MW.
(Reporting by Eileen Houlihan; Editing by Maureen Bavdek and
Sofina Mirza-Reid)