BLBG:Oil Gains A Second Day On Stimulus Speculation, OPEC Output Call
Oil rose for a second day in New York on speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve may take more steps to stimulate the economy and on OPEC’s call for members to cut production in excess of quotas.
Futures advanced as much as 1.1 percent, heading for a second week of gains. Reports showing U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly climbed and the cost of living fell by the most in more than three years fueled speculation Fed policy makers will discuss stimulus measures when they meet June 19. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would need to reduce output by 1.6 million barrels a day to comply with its targeted ceiling, Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri said.
“There are more supportive factors now for oil than there are negative,” Jonathan Barratt, chief executive officer of Barratt’s Bulletin, a commodity-markets newsletter in Sydney, said in a telephone interview. “The whole purpose of the cartel is to provide guidelines to production. Compliance is just a word. If the price slips below $80 a barrel then quotas will change and give prices a big bump.”
Oil for July delivery advanced as much as 89 cents to $84.80 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $84.58 at 1:11 p.m. Singapore time. The contract increased 1.6 percent yesterday to $83.91, the highest close since June 8. Prices are 0.6 percent higher this week and down 14 percent this year.
Brent oil for August settlement rose 76 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $97.93 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The front-month price for the European benchmark contract was at a premium to West Texas Intermediate of $13.01, down from $13.12 yesterday.
Candlestick Chart
Oil in New York is extending gains after yesterday’s rebound created a so-called bullish engulfing pattern on the daily candlestick chart, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Crude has long-term technical support along its 200- week moving average, around $80.81 a barrel. Buy orders tend to be clustered near chart-support levels.
OPEC kept its output limit at 30 million barrels a day at a meeting in Vienna yesterday as concern that global growth is shrinking outweighed calls by some members for supply cuts to stem sliding prices. Increased production from Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest exporter of crude, has been blamed for plunging prices by members including Iran, whose own exports will probably be curbed by a European Union embargo starting July 1.
South Korea Imports
South Korea’s crude imports from Iran in May fell 40 percent from a year earlier, the customs service said today. The world’s fifth-largest oil importer purchased 550,714 metric tons of oil, or about 17,765 tons a day, from Iran last month, compared with 911,889 tons, or about 29,416 tons a day, a year earlier, according to data on the service’s website.
Claims for unemployment insurance payments in the U.S. unexpectedly climbed by 6,000 to 386,000 in the week ended June 9, Labor Department figures showed yesterday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected claims would fall to 375,000. The cost of living declined 0.3 percent in May.
Oil futures may fall next week in New York on speculation the European debt crisis will spread after the downgrade of Spain’s rating and weekend elections in Greece, a Bloomberg survey showed. Seventeen of 39 analysts, or 44 percent, forecast crude will decline through June 22. Fifteen respondents, or 38 percent, predicted they will increase and seven said there will be little change.
China is hoarding crude at the fastest rate since the Beijing Olympics four years ago as oil’s slump prompts it to import unprecedented volumes even as refining slows.
The world’s second-biggest oil consumer built up a surplus of about 90 million barrels of crude in the first five months of the year, government data show. The excess, the most since the run-up to the 2008 games, is probably being kept at emergency and commercial storage centers, according to the International Energy Agency.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at bsharples@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net