Reuters reported that BNP Paribas slashed its base metals price forecasts for this year and next, and said risks to its forecasts are tilted heavily to the downside due to the economic uncertainty in Europe. The bank lowered its 2012 price forecast for aluminium to USD 2,085 per tonne from USD 2,270 and its 2013 forecast to USD 2,450 per tonne from USD 2,575. BNP cited aluminium oversupply as the main reason for weaker prices. Analyst Mr Stephen Briggs said that copper price forecasts for 2012 were lowered by USD 525 to USD 8,100 per tonne and for 2013 by USD 125 to USD 8,000 per tonne. Even after a dim H1, BNP continues to see world base metals demand increasing by 4% to 5% over 2012 although the risks are now skewed firmly to the downside. As usual, aluminium demand will outperform, while copper will be a notable laggard. Despite the largely indiscriminate nature of the recent sell off, the supply side differences among the base metals remain as pronounced as ever, the analyst said. Reported stocks of aluminium, nickel and zinc are far higher than those of copper, lead and tin both absolutely and relative to historical levels. BNP also lowered price forecasts for lead, nickel, tin and zinc for 2012 and 2013.

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