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RTRS:Indian rupee ends flat; RBI seen intervening heavily
 
By Subhadip Sircar
MUMBAI, June 25 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee ended flat on
Tuesday, and not far from record lows against the dollar, as
strong end-of-the-month greenback demand from state-run oil
firms and weak global risk sentiment pressured the domestic
currency.
The central bank was forced to intervene heavily in markets
to prop up the rupee after it fell to as low as 57.20 at one
point in the session, threatening to approach the record low of
57.32 hit on Friday.
The session was also marked by continued disappointment
after the central bank's steps on Monday to bolster the
embattled rupee -- including raising the foreign investment cap
in government bonds -- were seen as too mild by investors.
That continues to leave the rupee whipsawed by the
volatility in global risk assets, with the currency seen as one
of the most sensitive because of longstanding concerns about the
India's economic and fiscal outlooks.
"The euro seems weak, which may lead to a lower rupee
opening on Wednesday. But as long as the rupee doesn't close
below 57.15, it may still have some positive upside," said
Naveen Raghuvanshi, associate vice president at Development
Credit Bank.
The rupee settled flat at 57.01/02, unchanged from
Monday's close.
Demand for dollars from oil refiners were a drag on the
rupee, traders said. Such purchases tend to spike at the end of
each month.
Analysts see few catalysts that could lead to a significant
rebound in the rupee, unless India can deliver on plans to
attract long-term investments.
One-month offshore non-deliverable forward contracts
were quoted at 57.43, reflecting expectations for further
weakness ahead.
Some of the positive news on this regards, such as IKEA's
plan to invest 1.5 billion euros in India or Coca-Cola's
announcement on Tuesday it would invest $5 billion from 2012 to
2020, helped sentiment, but not enough to change concerns about
the lack of bolder government measures.
Nomura downgraded India's economic growth forecast for the
year ending in March 2013 to 5.8 percent from its previous 6.7
percent forecast, citing a "deadlock" in fiscal and monetary
policy.
"The longer the economy stays in the current deadlock, the
bigger the policy shock that will be required to get out,"
Nomura said in the report dated on Monday.
The rupee has hit a succession of record lows this year in a
slide that began in the middle of 2011. It has fallen about 7
percent this year, making it the worst performing currency
monitored daily in Asia by Reuters.
In the currency futures market, the most traded
near-month dollar-rupee contracts on the National Stock
Exchange, the United Stock Exchange and the MCX-SX all ended at
57.03. The total volume was at $6.02 billion.
Source