BLBG:Euro Falls Before Industries Data, Spanish Debt Sales
* Rising ECB rate cut expectations keep euro subdued
* Trading light due to U.S. holiday
* Euro falls to 11-1/2 yr low vs Swedish crown
By Anirban Nag
LONDON, July 4 (Reuters) - The euro slipped against the
dollar and the yen on Wednesday as grim economic data
strengthened expectations the European Central Bank is about to
cut interest rates, likely keeping the single currency under
pressure.
It slumped to a 11-1/2 year low against the higher-yielding
Swedish crown after Sweden's central bank kept interest rates
unchanged and only slightly trimmed its forecasts for future
borrowing costs, despite risks from the euro zone crisis.
The euro was also lower on bond redemption-related selling,
with some investors on the sidelines given a U.S. market holiday
that kept volumes on the low side, traders said.
The euro shed 0.3 percent to $1.2575, still holding
above Tuesday's low of $1.2559. Immediate resistance loomed at
$1.2693, a high reached last Friday after European leaders
hammered out a deal to tackle the region's debt crisis.
"The market looks primed for a 25 basis point cut by the
ECB, but something more like a liquidity injection would be
needed to lift the euro," said Paul Robson, currency strategist
at RBS.
"Investors will also want to see if the ECB President (Mario
Draghi) will highlight downside risks to growth and inflation,
which will set the ground for more easing."
Pressure on the ECB to ease policy has gathered pace as the
region's economic slowdown has deepened on the back of tight
credit conditions that are providing strong headwinds to growth
amid fiscal tightening and austerity.
Near-term inflation pressures have also eased following a
sharp drop in energy prices over the last couple of months,
giving extra scope for a rate cut.
Data on Wednesday showed Germany's services sector
unexpectedly stagnated in June. And while a contraction in
France's services sector eased, business expectations slumped to
their lowest in three years, underlining how bleak conditions in
Europe are.
Analysts said that, while a slew of measures to support
growth from the ECB could help the euro, given that investors
have significantly large bearish positions, any disappointment
could see the currency come under fresh pressure and bring the
June 28 low of $1.2407 back into focus.
BOND REDEMPTIONS
Currency dealers said Japanese investors received principal
on redeemed euro zone bonds which was swiftly converted to yen.
That pushed the euro 0.25 percent lower against the yen to
100.36.
A trader in a major Japanese bank said that the euro had
dipped in Asian trade due to bond redemption flows.
"Using that opportunity, I sold dollar/yen, but have since
closed my positions in both pairs and I'm taking a wait-and-see
stance ahead of the ECB tomorrow," the trader said.
A string of weak data out of the United States and Europe
has spurred expectations of more stimulus from both the ECB and
the Federal Reserve.
This has encouraged the market to use the euro and U.S.
dollar as funding currencies for carry trades, traders said.
While easing global monetary conditions should bolster risk
appetite and may lend some support to the euro, it is likely to
underperform the growth-linked currencies as a lower interest
rate would be euro-negative.
Also, flooding markets with extra cash tends to drive
investors to chase higher-yielding currencies.
"We are short euro against the commodity currencies like the
Aussie, the New Zealand dollar and the Swedish crown," said
Stuart Frost, head of Absolute Returns and Currency at fund
managers RWC Partners.
"The ECB is unlikely to surprise as it would want to save
its ammunition for a later date. We expect euro/dollar to drift
lower."
The euro fell to a 4-1/2 month low against the Australian
dollar around A$1.2211.
It slid to a 11-1/2 year low of 8.6956 against the crown
as long-term investors and hedge funds sold the euro
after the Riksbank kept rates unchanged at 1.5 percent as
expected.
Traders said a hedge fund sold and stop loss orders were
triggered on the break of 8.70 crowns.
"I would be very cautious going short down here," said a
London based trader. "Due to Sweden's high exposure to Europe,
there is a chance that the Riksbank will need to cut rates
against their forecasts should the situation in the euro area
worsen."