RTRS:FOREX-Euro stays weak as market awaits U.S. jobs data
* Euro near 5-wk low vs dollar, record lows vs AUD, NZD
* ECB rate cut further dampens euro appeal
* Strong U.S. jobs reading could boost dollar
By Jessica Mortimer
LONDON, July 6 (Reuters) - The euro stayed close to a
five-week low against the dollar on Friday, a day after an
interest rate cut by the European Central Bank further dampened
the common currency's appeal and as the market awaited key U.S.
jobs data.
U.S. non-farm payrolls are due at 1230 GMT. A solid reading
could boost the dollar if it suggested the U.S. Federal Reserve
was less likely to follow the central banks of China, Britain
and the euro zone in opting for more stimulus.
The U.S. economy is expected to have added 90,000 new jobs
last month.
Some analysts believe this week's better-than-expected U.S.
private payrolls data suggest the rise in non-farm payrolls
could be bigger than this, with Goldman Sachs raising its
forecast to a 125,000 gain from 75,000 previously.
"If non-farm payrolls are strong enough to suggest there
will be no QE from the Fed, the dollar will strengthen. If they
are weaker then the dollar will fall as the Fed will just be
playing catch-up with the rest of the world," said ING head of
currency strategy Chris Turner.
The euro was steady at $1.2399, near a 5-week low of
$1.23638 hit on Thursday.
A break below there would leave it on course for a move
towards the two-year low of $1.2288 struck on June 1.
The euro was expected to continue falling after the ECB cut
its main interest rate to 0.75 percent and the deposit rate to
zero, which reduced the incentive for investors to hold a
currency already beset by debt problems.
Many analysts expect the ECB's easing this week will lead
the euro to take on the role of a funding currency - a currency
used to fund investments in higher-yielding assets -, meaning it
could struggle to make ground even when share price rise.
"A weaker euro has to be one of the least costly solutions
to the euro zone crisis," ING's Turner said, adding he expected
the euro to see an "orderly decline" towards $1.15 by year-end.
A Reuters poll conducted after the ECB rate cut showed
economists expect more measures from the central bank in coming
months, possibly including another round of cheap, long-term
loans for banks.
The euro also stayed close to record lows hits on Thursday
against the Australian and New Zealand dollars
.
Against the Swiss franc, the euro was at 1.2010 francs
, continuing to hover just above the Swiss National
Bank's 1.20 franc floor which it imposed last year in an attempt
to stem franc appreciation.
Many in the market believe the SNB will struggle to maintain
the cap, with data on Friday showing the SNB's foreign exchange
reserves jumped 19 percent in June as the euro zone crisis
forced it to intervene heavily.
FIRMER DOLLAR
Renewed euro softness saw the dollar index rally to
82.950 on Thursday, a high not seen since early June. It stayed
close to that level and was last at 82.828.
Against the yen, the dollar was barely changed at 79.88 yen
having reached a two-week high of 80.099 on Thursday.
Traders reported sell orders around 80.10 which may cap gains.
"If the jobs data is indeed slightly stronger than many in
the market expect, we may see some renewed strength in the
dollar versus other currencies," said Teppei Ino, currency
analyst at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in Tokyo.
The higher-yielding Australian dollar was down 0.1 percent
against the U.S. dollar at $1.0271, off a two-month
high of $1.0330 hit on Thursday following a surprise interest
rate cut in China, its second in a matter of weeks.
China is Australia's single largest export market and any
action to stimulate the world's second-biggest economy is
usually seen as positive for the Australian dollar.