* U.S. dry weather, Indian monsoon shortfall stir markets
* Weather woes come as Asian festival season starts in July
* Coming Up: Malaysia exports, MPOB stocks data; July 10
By Niluksi Koswanage
KUALA LUMPUR, July 9 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil
futures rose on Monday on worries that unfavourable weather,
from the United States to India, could crimp oilseed production
and tighten global supply of cooking oil during a peak season
for Asian demand.
A shortfall in India's monsoon rains is the latest weather
concern to hit edible oil markets as summer-sown crops such as
soybeans will be affected, forcing the world's largest importer
of edible oil to buy more alternative palm oil.
Palm oil, which has lost 0.5 percent so far this year, is
also now rising due to the drought in the United States, which
is hurting soybean yields.
"Palm oil is taking a free ride. It will take more of the
market from soybean oil, especially during the festival season
on the Asian side," said a trader with a foreign commodities
brokerage.
Benchmark September palm oil futures on the Bursa
Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended the day up 0.7 percent or 23
ringgit at 3,153 ringgit ($990) per tonne.
Traded volumes stood at 18,615 lots of 25 tonnes each, lower
than the usual 25,000 lots.
Technicals, however appeared negative. Reuters analyst Wang
Tao said the tropical oil would revisit a July 5 low of 3,095
ringgit, as it had completed a rebound from the June 14 low of
2,838 ringgit.
Traders are expecting on Tuesday a slew of Malaysian export
data for the first ten days of July which could show strong
festival demand for the edible oil.
The Asian festival season starts with the Muslim observance
of Ramadan, which begins around July 20, where a month of
fasting in the day is followed by feasts in the evening.
The market is also on the lookout for industry regulator
Malaysian Palm Oil Board's June palm oil stocks that will show a
14-month low because of strong demand chasing modest production
growth.
Some analysts are on the watch for a brewing El Nino weather
condition, which brings drought to palm oil producing Southeast
Asia. Malaysia-based OSK Investment Bank raised its 2013 average
price assumption for palm oil to 3,500 ringgit from 3,100
ringgit to factor in the weather anomaly.
Brent crude oil climbed to around $99 a barrel on Monday as
failed labour talks stoked worries of a full shutdown of
Norwegian oil production, while hopes China would ease monetary
policy also supported prices.
Other vegetable oil markets also focused on the weather in
Asian trade. U.S. soyoil for July delivery rose 2.2
percent and the most active January 2013 soyoil contract
on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose 1.1 percent.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1013 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL JUL2 3125 +31.00 3125 3125 92
MY PALM OIL AUG2 3142 +32.00 3130 3152 490
MY PALM OIL SEP2 3153 +23.00 3145 3172 13830
CHINA PALM OLEIN JAN3 8308 +48.00 8174 8344 436240
CHINA SOYOIL JAN3 9876 +76.00 9710 9910 896380
CBOT SOY OIL DEC2 55.20 +0.97 54.42 55.40 11108
NYMEX CRUDE AUG2 84.79 +0.34 84.00 85.05 27852
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1=3.1736 Malaysian ringgit)
