* Exports down 13.5 pct, but U.S. dry weather supports
* Futures to fall to 3,051 ringgit -technicals
* Malaysian palm oil stocks drop 4.9 pct -MPOB
(Updates prices)
By Chew Yee Kiat
SINGAPORE, July 10 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil
futures slipped on Tuesday as weak exports signalled consumers
might have stocked up well ahead of the Muslim holy month of
Ramadan, although losses were capped by dry U.S. weather
potentially hurting soy output.
Malaysian palm oil exports for the first 10 days of July
slipped 13.5 percent from a month ago, said cargo surveyor
Intertek Testing Services, going against expectations that
strong Asian demand will push exports higher.
But some in the market are holding out for the Asian
festival season in July, starting with Ramadan where fasting in
the day is followed by elaborate feasts at night. China and
India also celebrate key holidays in September through to
November.
Strong Asian demand last month saw Malaysian palm oil stocks
fall to a 14-month low, government data showed on Tuesday.
"The market's down on exports today. The numbers were not so
good and they surprised everybody," said a trader with a foreign
commodities brokerage in Malaysia. "But the U.S. dry weather
still plays a part on Malaysian palm oil, that's why there's no
sharp retracement downwards."
The benchmark September palm oil futures on the
Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange slipped 0.7 percent to close
at 3,130 ringgit ($986) per tonne.
Traded volumes stood at 27,643 lots of 25 tonnes each,
slightly higher than the usual 25,000 lots.
Technicals were bearish with Reuters market analyst Wang Tao
saying palm oil will drop to 3,051 ringgit, as a rebound from
the June 14 low of 2,838 ringgit was completed.
China's orders of vegetable oils in June were up 17.4
percent from a month ago, according to government data, a bright
spot in overall weakness in imports and signalling some
restocking may be in the works.
Strong demand from China in the next few months could eat
into Malaysian stocks that fell 4.9 percent to 1.7 million
tonnes.
Lower stocks, and the persistent drought in the U.S. Midwest
which has damaged soy crops and limited global oilseed supply,
could provide support for futures prices.
Traders were also cautious after Japan's weather bureau said
on Tuesday there is a strong possibility the El Nino weather
pattern, which is often linked to droughts in Southeast Asia and
could hurt palm oil output, will emerge this summer.
Crude oil fell on Tuesday as prospects for demand growth
dimmed after Chinese crude imports slowed while supply
constraints eased as a Norwegian strike ended.
Other vegetable oil markets also retreated from gains in the
previous day. U.S. soyoil for July delivery lost 0.2
percent and the most active January 2013 soyoil contract
on the Dalian Commodity Exchange eased 0.5 percent.
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL JUL2 3139 +13.00 3082 3139 424
MY PALM OIL AUG2 3126 -16.00 3090 3143 1693
MY PALM OIL SEP2 3130 -23.00 3103 3156 16194
CHINA PALM OLEIN JAN3 8202 -72.00 8196 8298 237668
CHINA SOYOIL JAN3 9786 -42.00 9782 9868 536006
CBOT SOY OIL DEC2 55.13 -0.25 54.80 55.67 7383
NYMEX CRUDE AUG2 85.50 -0.49 84.62 85.84 28956
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1=3.175 Malaysian ringgit)
