Gasoline prices have started trending higher and will likely continue increasing through the end of the summer driving season. "You can anticipate prices increasing through Labor Day," said Windy VanCuren with AAA Mid-Atlantic, though "we're not anticipating the record highs." In the Richmond region, a gallon of self-serve regular gasoline jumped 5 cents over the weekend, selling on average for $3.23 Monday compared with Friday, according to AAA. That was still 9 cents below the price a month ago and 25 cents below the cost a year ago. "I was surprised to see gas back up," Richmond businesswoman Suzanne Madison Hogg said Monday. The price matters to the organizational development and fundraising consultant: "I drive at least 50 miles a day, and travel in central Virginia and North Carolina for business." National gas prices ended a 78-day downward trend last week, after decreasing from an average of $3.91 per gallon on April 16 to $3.33 per gallon on July 3, according to the AAA travel group. "Gas is directly related to what the cost of crude (oil) is," said Michael J. O'Connor, president and chief executive officer of Virginia Petroleum, Convenience and Grocery Association. "It will take a few more days to see if this is a trend or an anomaly." The association represents about 600 member companies that own and operate the majority of the 4,700 stores in Virginia that sell gasoline and motor fuels to the public. For instance, the price of oil climbed about 2 percent Monday as striking Norwegian oil workers caused the industry to prepare for a shutdown in the North Sea. Benchmark U.S. crude rose $1.54 to $85.99 per barrel. "And we're in the middle of the summer driving season where demand is high," VanCuren noted. "Come fall, we should hopefully see prices go down again," barring something like a hurricane disrupting oil production in the Gulf of Mexico. But "the risk is much greater for higher prices than lower prices," said John C. Zehler Jr., president of Virginia Fuels Inc. of Mechanicsville. "I can very readily make a case for $3.75 gasoline." Tom Kloza, Oil Price Information Service chief oil analyst and AAA partner, predicted gas prices will move lower after Labor Day when the summer driving season ends. Events that disrupt supply or increase uncertainty about future world oil supplies tend to drive up prices. Worries about possible interruptions in oil supply, whether because of tensions over Iran in the Middle East or a strike by workers in Norway's North Sea oil fields, are pushing the price of petroleum higher. Most of the cost of gasoline — 80 percent — traces to the price of the crude oil used to make it, the U.S. Energy Department said. The price of petroleum products such as gasoline tends to move in concert with crude oil prices. Factors, from local to global, play a role in gas prices, the Energy Information Administration said. They include energy consumption, production, inventories, spare production capacity and geopolitical risks, as well as other influences, such as futures market trading, commodity investment, currency exchange rates and equity markets.

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