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WSJ:OIL FUTURES:Crude Up On Hopes US Bernanke Will Signal Stimulus
 
--Crude up as hopes of U.S. Fed stimulus offset worries over IMF global growth downgrade

--Jitters over Persian Gulf incident help to re-focus attention on supply fears, supporting oil prices

--Brent could test $105/bbl, U.S. crude $90/bbl if Bernanke signals stimulus, says Sucden

By Selina Williams

LONDON--Crude futures prices were up Tuesday as hopes that U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will signal further stimulus to drive economic growth offset worries over the International Monetary Fund's recent downgrade to global economic growth.

Jitters over an incident Monday in the Persian Gulf between a U.S. Navy ship and a fishing boat also helped to re-focus attention on supply fears due to geopolitical tensions with Iran over its nuclear program, adding support to prices.

At 1058 GMT, the front month September Brent contract trading on London's ICE futures exchange was up 84 cents, or 0.8%, at $104.21 a barrel. The front-month August contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading up 10 cents at $88.53 per barrel.

Mr. Bernanke is due to appear in front of the Senate banking committee at 1400 GMT, where market participants are hoping for an announcement of a further round of quantitative easing. Previous rounds have weakened the dollar, making oil cheaper for holders of other currencies and driving up prices.

Mr. Bernanke's appearance follows a slew of mixed data on the U.S. economy, including disappointing U.S. retail sales for June.

"Any positive moves from Bernanke could move oil higher, with Brent testing $105 a barrel and WTI $90, however, failure to comment on stimulus measures could prompt another round of selloffs on the oil market," said Sucden Financial analyst Myrto Sokou, referring to U.S. crude West Texas Intermediate.

However, any strength in oil prices could be shortlived once the bigger economic weaknesses hove back into view, Commerzbank said in a note.

"Apart from the supply risks and the hope of further stimulus measures, there are currently only few arguments which would justify the latest rise in the price of crude," the bank said.

Monday, the IMF cut its global growth outlook and urged policymakers to take bolder actions to bolster the faltering recovery.

The fund forecast the world economy will expand 3.5% this year, a slight downgrade from its estimate three months ago and the past decade's slowest annual projection apart from 2009, after the financial crisis struck.

Furthermore, the fund slashed its 2012 expectations for some big emerging market economies, including Brazil and India, that had powered the global recovery and oil demand, since 2009. It cut the outlook for China, the world's second largest oil consumer after the U.S., modestly but warned of risks of a "hard landing" for the world's second-largest economy amid fears about weakening investment and exports.

At 1101 GMT, the ICE's gasoil contract for August delivery was up $9.25, or 1%, at $898.75 per metric ton, while Nymex gasoline for August delivery was up 195 points, or 0.7%, at $2.8742 per gallon.

-Write to Selina Williams at selina.williams@wsj.com
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