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FOX: U.S. GAS: Prices Drop from 7-Month High Ahead of Inventory Data
 
Natural-gas futures prices slipped from seven-month highs early Thursday as the market awaited widely watched U.S. inventory data due at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
Prices fell Thursday morning after jumping 6.3% Wednesday -- the biggest daily rise in a month -- to $2.973 million British thermal units, the highest price since Jan. 9. Front-month futures hit an intraday high of $3.02/mmBtu, the second time this month the price broke the $3 mark, but failed to settle above it.
Wednesday's rally came amid reported outages at some nuclear facilities, which could mean a potentially greater call on gas-fired plants to meet power demand. But traders said prices near $3/mmBtu would be difficult to sustain, as coal becomes an attractively priced alternative to gas for some utilities at around that level.
Near-term weather forecasts show above-normal temperatures are lingering in the Midwest, but temperatures are returning to normal levels in the Northeast and parts of the west and south into early August, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA. Market players said that may limit potential for future demand-led gains in futures prices.
"We're becoming a bit worried about the shrinking area of above-normal temps in the 8-14 day NOAA forecast, which could act as a headwind in the near-term," said Tom Pawlicki, an energy analyst at broker EOXLive.
Natural-gas futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were recently trading down 3 cents at $2.943/mmBtu.
On the supply front, inventories of gas are expected to remain at record highs for this time of year, even after what is expected to be a smaller-than-normal injection of gas into storage last week.
Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expect data to be released by the Energy Information Administration to show inventories rose by 33 billion cubic feet in the week ended July 13. That's well below last year's increase of 67 bcf and the five-year average of 74 bcf for the week.
If the storage forecast is correct, inventories would stand at 3.168 trillion cubic feet, a record for this week, and 19.4% above a year ago. The storage level would also be 17.6% above the five-year average.
Jim Ritterbusch, head of Ritterbusch & Associates advisory firm, said the data could spark broad price moves, depending on what it shows.
He said a build of less than 30 bcf would "spark a brief spike" above $3 before prices fall back toward unchanged. An increase closer to 40 bcf could potentially push price back down to near $2.78/mmBtu, he said.
Natural gas for next-day delivery at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana recently traded at $2.9875/mmBtu, according to IntercontinentalExchange, compared with Wednesday's average of $2.86/mmBtu. Natural gas for next-day delivery at Transcontinental Zone 6 in New York traded at $3.13/mmBtu, up from $3.115/mmBtu.
Write to David Bird at david.bird@dowjones.com
Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires


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