RTRS:FOREX-Euro steady, hangs on Fed, ECB decisions
* Focus on whether ECB acts after Draghi's pledge
* Investors see risk of disappointment
* Aussie hits four-month high versus U.S. dollar
* Fed seen in wait-and-see mode
By Jessica Mortimer
LONDON, Aug 1 (Reuters) - The euro held steady against the
dollar on Wednesday, with the currencies' near-term direction
tied closely to impending monetary policy decisions in the
United States and the euro zone.
Investors are gearing up for possible European Central Bank
action on Thursday to tackle the region's debt crisis, but they
are also mindful of the risk of disappointment.
Bank President Mario Draghi last week boosted the euro and
riskier assets by pledging to do everything necessary to
preserve the euro.
Analysts said this made many wary of taking a strong
position and was likely to keep the euro trapped in a tight
range against the dollar.
Before then, a U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision is due
at 1815 GMT on Wednesday. Analysts expect the Fed will stop
short of announcing aggressive measures to tackle a weak economy
but nevertheless to signal it is ready to act.
The euro was flat at $1.2315, coming under some
pressure after German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said
governments overestimated the ECB's capacities and placed too
many demands on it.
The single currency was supported above Monday's low of
$1.2225 but remained below a three-week peak of $1.2390 struck
after Draghi's comments last week, which raised expectations the
ECB might resume its bond purchase programme, lowering borrowing
costs for Spain and Italy.
"If the ECB come up with something very clear-cut we could
see a position squeeze (higher) in the euro, depending on how
much detail Draghi gives at the press conference," said Ankita
Dudani, currency strategist at RBS.
She added that the risk of a positive outcome from the ECB
or a disappointment were about 50/50, which was likely to keep
trade in euro/dollar quite muted.
Investors were wary of stiff German opposition to either a
resumption of ECB bond-buying or granting a banking license to
the euro zone's rescue fund to increase its firepower.
Many analysts and traders say the impact of any ECB's action
would in any case be temporary without a sustainable economic
recovery in battered southern Europe.
Weak economic growth and record high joblessness across the
euro zone is likely to keep alive chances of more interest rate
cuts by the ECB in the near term, keeping sentiment towards the
euro bearish.
Euro zone data painted a gloomy picture for the region, with
a business surveys on Wednesday showing the region's
manufacturing sector contracted for an 11th successive month.
FOMC AWAITED
Support for the euro from Middle-East investors capped the
dollar index, which was down 0.1 percent at 82.572,
hovering above a near four-week low of 82.343 hit last week.
Across the Atlantic, traders will keep an eye on the ADP
employment report for July, but the main highlight will be the
Fed's statement where it is likely to mark down expectations for
growth but hold back from further easing.
"We think if the Fed indicates a wait-and-see approach it
could lead to some disappointment and would weigh on the
euro/dollar," said Adam Myers, senior currency strategist at
Credit Agricole.
He added even if the Fed surprised and announced fresh
measures, likely disappointment from the ECB on Thursday would
cap any gains in the euro.
Earlier, the dollar hit a two-month low against the Japanese
yen of 77.90 yen on the EBS trading platform, with
traders saying it may have been influenced by month-end flows.
It was last trading at 78.15 yen.
The growth-linked Australian dollar shrugged off
weak Chinese official factory purchasing managers' index to rise
to a four-month high against the U.S. dollar of $1.0543, with
traders citing option barriers at $1.0550.
Analysts said growth-linked currencies are likely to be
supported by diversification flows from central banks.
Reflecting that, the Swedish crown hit a 12-year high against
the euro of 8.2985.