LONDON: The prospect of more monetary easing globally and deep-rooted economic problems in Europe will keep the euro roughly around its current levels against the dollar for the next year, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday. While its day-to-day path around that trend will inevitably look more erratic, the survey of 61 economists and foreign exchange strategists suggested the euro will hold its value -- assuming no escalation of the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis. The euro rose to a three-week high against the dollar last Friday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi vowed to do whatever it takes to protect the euro zone from collapse. The poll suggested the euro will still be around its current level of $1.23 in a month's time, but that view hinges on the outcomes of major central bank policy meetings this week, including the ECB and U.S. Federal Reserve. Euro forecasts have been in a narrow range all year, with changes of about 10 pips in either direction based on the actual movement in euro in the previous month. Most analysts reckon the Fed will stop short of announcing aggressive measures to tackle a weak economy, but to signal it is ready to act at its Wednesday meeting, with the outcome due at 1815 GMT. The result of Thursday's ECB meeting is harder to gauge, complicated by German opposition to steps including a resumption of the securities market programme (SMP) of government bond purchases, designed to depress high borrowing costs in countries like Italy and Spain. "If the ECB announces nothing convincing -- SMP, further easing of collateral eligibility -- the euro could quickly pull back and test $1.20," said Nordine Naam, strategist at Natixis. The poll showed the euro staying around its current level of $1.23 for the next six months, before strengthening a little to $1.25 in a year's time. The forecasts represented a slight downgrade -- a couple cents -- compared to last month's poll. The euro zone's deepening economic turmoil will likely force the ECB to cut its main policy interest rate to a new record low by the year's end, although probably not this Thursday, a Reuters poll of economists showed last week. The prospect of further monetary easing from the Fed -- even if it fails to materialise later on Wednesday -- will prevent the euro from sinking too much further. Currency speculators decreased their bets in favour of the dollar last week to the lowest in 2-1/2 months, according to data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday. Against sterling, respondents downgraded their outlook for the euro by a couple of pence compared to last month's poll, reflecting a similar drop in the actual exchange rate over the last month. The poll showed the euro trading around its current level near 78.5 pence over all of the one-, three-, six- and twelve-month time horizons.

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