* Front month well below recent 7-1/2-month high * Milder weather on tap for consuming regions * Stir in tropical activity has some traders cautious * Coming Up: API oil data Tuesday, EIA oil data Wednesday By Eileen Houlihan NEW YORK, Aug 14 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose about 1 percent in early trading Tuesday, lifted by some unexpected nuclear power plant outages and near-term heat in the West despite mild weather in consuming regions. In addition, technical traders said the front month contract was due for a bounce after sliding about 15 percent so far this month as the blazing heat of the summer subsides. Traders also said a recent stir in tropical activity could keep many cautious, but most expect prices to have a hard time breaking back above $3 per million British thermal units, the level where gas tends to lose much of its appeal over coal for power generation. As of 9:11 a.m. EDT (1311 GMT), front-month September natural gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange were at $2.762 per mmBtu, up 3.3 cents, or about 1 percent. The National Weather Service's six- to 10-day outlook issued on Monday called for below-normal temperatures across much of the eastern half of the nation through the mid-continent, and above-normal readings in most of the West and the northern East Coast. The National Hurricane Center said the remnants of Tropical Depression Seven had a 20 percent chance to regenerate over the west-central Caribbean in the next 48 hours. A low pressure system about 1,100 miles southeast of Bermuda also had a 20 percent chance to develop further. On the nuclear front, total outages on Tuesday were at 9,000 megawatts, or 9 percent of U.S. capacity, up from 8,900 MW out on Monday, 6,200 MW out a year ago, and a five-year outage rate of about 5,600 MW. ANOTHER BELOW-AVERAGE STOCK BUILD Last week's gas storage report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed domestic gas inventories had risen by 24 billion cubic feet to 3.241 trillion cubic feet. The build came in below Reuters poll estimates for a 30-bcf build and again was well short of the year-earlier gain of 31 bcf and the five-year average increase for the week of 45 bcf. It was the 15th straight week injections have fallen below the seasonal norm. The weekly injection trimmed the surplus to last year to 465 bcf, or 17 percent. It also cut the excess versus the five-year average to 386 bcf, or 14 percent. (Storage graphic: link.reuters.com/mup44s) But storage remains at record highs for this time of year and at 79 percent full, a level not normally reached until mid-September. Producing-region stocks, which lost 6 bcf last week, are at 83 percent of estimated capacity. Concerns remain that the storage overhang could drive prices to new lows later this summer if inventories climb to levels that would test the government's 4.1-tcf estimate of capacity. The EIA estimates that gas inventories will climb to 3.954 tcf by the end of October. Early injection estimates for this week's EIA report range from 14 bcf to 40 bcf, versus last year's build of 43 bcf and the five-year average increase for the week of 43 bcf. HIGH PRODUCTION Baker Hughes drilling rig data on Friday showed the gas-directed rig count fell for the 11th time in 12 weeks to a 13-year low of 495. (Rig graphic: r.reuters.com/dyb62s) Dry gas drilling has become largely uneconomical at current prices, and a 47 percent drop in the gas rig count over the last nine months has fed expectations that producers were getting serious about slowing record output. But drillers have moved rigs to more-profitable shale oil and shale gas liquid plays that still produce plenty of associated gas that ends up in the market after processing. The EIA's gross gas production report last week showed May output was unchanged from April at 72.39 bcf per day, just shy of January's record of 72.74 bcfd. Traders have been looking for signs that relatively low gas prices might finally slow record output, but production is still at 3 bcfd, or 4.3 percent, above the same year-ago month. The EIA, in its short-term energy outlook last week, trimmed its estimate for domestic gas production growth in 2012, but still expects output this year to be up 3.8 percent from 2011's record levels. The agency said it expected marketed natural gas production in 2012 to rise by 2.5 bcf per day to a record 68.72 bcfd, down slightly from its July outlook that had output this year at 68.98 bcf daily. (Reporting by Eileen Houlihan; editing by John Wallace)

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