* PMI falls to 45.1, lowest level since summer 2009 * Exporter losing near-immunity to fallout from euro crisis * Data Adds to pressure on central bank to cut rates * Riksbank publishes rate decision on Sept. 6 * Only one bank sees cut this week, October cut more likely (Adds quotes, background) STOCKHOLM, Sept 3 (Reuters) - Activity in Sweden's manufacturing sector plumbed a three-year low in August as exporters' long-standing resilience to fallout from the euro zone crisis began to erode, increasing the chances of a near-term cut in interest rates. Sweden's economy has so far fended off the worst effects of the debt turmoil in the single currency bloc, which buys around 50 percent of the country's exports. But Monday's purchasing managers' index (PMI), which missed expectations by a wide margin, pointed to a sharp slowdown in the second half of the year as demand from abroad slumps. The seasonally adjusted manufacturing PMI sank to 45.1 points in August from 50.6 points the previous month, said data compilers Silf and Swedbank. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a reading of 50.0 points, the dividing line between expansion and contraction. Until now, Sweden's economy has felt little impact from the crisis to the south, but Monday's data suggested the signs of weakness that economists have long awaited are starting to emerge. The PMI compilers said all the sub-indices fell with orders - particularly for export goods - contributing a 10 point fall in that index. "We had expected it (PMI) would go down for a number of months and finally a little bit of a larger fall has happened," said Olle Holmgren at SEB. "Now we have slipped down to around the level of Germany and the order figures were very weak. You can't draw too big a conclusion from just one figure, but this nevertheless points to the fact that Swedish industry is feeling the effects of the slowdown abroad." The data will play a role in the central bank's policy decision this Thursday, which will follow Wednesday's meeting, though chances it could push them into cutting interest rates look remote. "This puts pressure on the Riksbank and they will be affected by it," said Torbjorn Isaksson, economist at Nordea. "We don't think they will cut the repo rate this week... but it raises the chances of a cut later this year." According to calculations of market pricing by SEB, investors see an around 30 percent chance of a rate cut this week, rising to a 100 percent chance in October. A recent strengthening in the crown, trading near 12 year highs against the euro, has also been seen as adding to the pain for the key export sector. At its last meeting in July, however, the central bank said it expected rates to stay at the current 1.50 percent level through most of next year, with only a slight chance of a cut if the situation in the euro zone got worse. A poll of analysts by Reuters last week showed fourteen of 15 analysts predicting no change in the repo rate this week. The lone dissenter forecast a cut of 25 basis points to 1.25 percent. However, seven out of 15 analysts expected a cut in October by 25 basis points. (Editing by John Stonestreet)

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