* Malaysia August stocks up 5.8 pct - MPOB
* Malaysia palm exports for Sept. 1-10 up 26.8 pct - ITS
* Palm oil to rebound to 2,943 ringgit - technicals
* Japan forecaster keeps view El Nino likely until winter
(Updates prices, adds details)
By Chew Yee Kiat
SINGAPORE, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil
futures inched lower on Monday on expectations of rising
inventory levels, although losses were limited by a jump in
exports that could help ease pressure, eating into high stock
levels that have risen above 2 million tonnes.
The tropical oil was also tracking Chicago soybeans, which
edged lower in Asian trade on hopes that late-season rains in
the United States would help salvage some of the drought-hit
oilseed crop.
The market lacked a clear direction as traders were awaiting
August stocks data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, which
after the midday break reported a 5.8 percent increase from a
month earlier.
"The price movement is likely to hinge on the expectations
as well as the official MPOB data. For palm oil futures today,
this is the main highlight that we are watching," said Ker Chung
Yang, commodities analyst with Phillip Futures in Singapore.
By the midday break, the benchmark November contract
on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had edged
down 0.3 percent to 2,918 ringgit ($941) per tonne, extending
losses to a fifth consecutive session.
Total traded volume stood at 14,808 lots of 25 tonnes each,
slightly higher than the usual 12,500 lots.
Malaysia's August palm oil stocks rose 5.8 percent to
2,125,214 tonnes from a revised 1,999,066 tonnes in July on high
production and beat market expectations of 2.09 million tonnes.
Malaysia's palm oil exports continued a strong performance
from August, rising almost 27 percent for the Sept. 1-10 period
on higher crude product shipments, cargo surveyor Intertek
Testing Services said on Monday.
Another cargo surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance,
will issue exports numbers later in the day.
Technicals were supportive, with Reuters analyst Wang Tao
saying palm oil was expected to rebound to 2,943 ringgit.
Japan's weather bureau said on Monday that its climate
models indicated the El Nino phenomenon, which brings
crop-damaging hot and dry weather to Southeast Asia, was under
way and there was a high chance it would last until winter.
In a bullish signal for palm oil, Brent crude futures
climbed above $114 per barrel on Monday, but gains were limited
as expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve to launch further
stimulus measures offset weak Chinese industrial output data.
In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for December
delivery rose 0.5 percent and the most active January
2013 soyoil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange
had lost 0.3 percent by 0536 GMT.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 0536 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL SEP2 2823 +14.00 2785 2823 183
MY PALM OIL OCT2 2858 -7.00 2845 2882 914
MY PALM OIL NOV2 2918 -9.00 2897 2944 7906
CHINA PALM OLEIN JAN3 8010 -36.00 7954 8022 160984
CHINA SOYOIL JAN3 10058 -32.00 9980 10066 273044
CBOT SOY OIL DEC2 56.93 +0.27 56.22 56.93 4682
NYMEX CRUDE OCT2 96.32 -0.10 96.09 96.41 3060
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1=3.103 Malaysian ringgit)
