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BLBG:Oil Trades Near Three-Week High on Stimulus Outlook
 
Oil traded near the highest level in three weeks amid speculation China and the U.S. will add stimulus to their economies, sustaining demand for fuel in the world’s biggest crude users.
Futures were little changed after rising for a fifth day yesterday, the longest run of gains since July. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said the government has more room for fiscal and monetary policy to support growth. The Federal Open Market Committee starts a two-day meeting today, when it may announce measures to stimulate the U.S. economy. The nation’s crude stockpiles probably fell 2.9 million barrels last week, a Bloomberg survey shows before an Energy Department report.
ā€œThe premier’s comments are supportive for the oil market,ā€ said Ric Spooner, a chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney. ā€œWith the Fed, the issue is what they do and how big it’s going to be. Without supply shocks, we are probably fairly close to the top end of the range for oil.ā€
Crude for October delivery was at $97.19 a barrel, up 2 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 2:06 p.m. Singapore time. The contract yesterday rose 0.7 percent to $97.17, the highest close since Aug. 22. Prices are 1.7 percent lower this year.
Brent oil for October settlement gained 27 cents to $115.67 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark grade’s premium to West Texas Intermediate was at $18.48, from $18.23 yesterday.
ā€˜Ample Strength’
The difference between the world’s two most-traded grades of oil, which widened to as much as $21.92 last month, is narrowing as North Sea production rebounds from the lowest level in five years. Daily exports of the four crude grades comprising the Dated Brent benchmark will rise 24 percent in October, the biggest monthly increase in two years, as maintenance work ends, data compiled by Bloomberg shows.
China has ā€œample strengthā€ for preemptive fiscal and monetary measures, Wen said at the World Economic Forum in Tianjin city yesterday. The government is trying to prevent growth this year from slipping below the 7.5 percent target set in March, which would already be the weakest since 1990.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said on Aug. 31 that he wouldn’t rule out more economic stimulus for the U.S. The central bank bought a total of $2.3 trillion in bonds from December 2008 to June 2011 in two rounds of asset purchases known as quantitative easing.
ā€œThe market is waiting on the outcome of the FOMC meeting and data from the Energy Department,ā€ said David Lennox, an analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney.
Slowing Demand
Oil in New York slipped as much as 0.5 percent earlier today after the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute said crude stockpiles rose 221,000 barrels last week. Gasoline supplies declined 4.16 million barrel and distillate-fuel inventories rose 2.55 million, the API’s weekly report showed.
Supplies of oil are abundant and consumption will slow next year, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said yesterday. Global demand will rise by an average 800,000 barrels a day to 89.55 million a day in 2013, OPEC said in its monthly market report. Demand is forecast to increase by 900,000 barrels a day to 88.74 million this year. The group estimates its 12 members will need to pump an average of 29.5 million barrels a day next year, or 1.9 million less than current output.
WTI will average $93.67 a barrel during the final three months of this year, the Energy Department said in its Short- Term Energy Outlook yesterday. Prices will average $92.63 a barrel next year, the department said.
Oil in New York has technical resistance along the upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart, around $99.36 a barrel today, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Futures have halted advances near this indicator since July. Sell orders tend to be clustered near chart-resistance levels.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at bsharples@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mike Anderson at manderson34@bloomberg.net
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