RTRS:Copper climbs on Spain relief; China holiday eyed
(Reuters) - London copper inched up on Friday after Spain moved to buttress its economy, but was on course for its second weekly loss in a row as the impact of central bank easing fizzled and concerns over Chinese demand weighed ahead of a week-long holiday.
China's markets will be shut from Oct 1 to 5, draining liquidity from the top metals consumer during a week of top tier economic releases that may show further deterioration in global growth, dimming the outlook for metals demand.
"The demand side here is not improving. If there are more increases in prices it's going to be very risky, and probably a good time to sell shorts," said Shanghai-based analyst Judy Zhu of Standard Chartered.
China's final September figures for the private sector HSBC manufacturing report will be released on Saturday, followed by a National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report on Monday October 1. From the United States, durable goods, construction spending and employment data are due over the next week.
"If the PMI is not bad, I will be surprised. What I see on the ground is that people are still suffering, so September should be worse than August, which could be a downside risk for copper prices tonight," Zhu added.
China is the world's top consumer of metals, accounting for 40 percent of refined copper demand last year.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange had risen 0.99 percent to $8,255.75 a metric ton by 0726 GMT, extending gains from the previous session, after prices hit their lowest in two weeks at $8,082 a metric ton on Wednesday.
Despite easing measures unleashed by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, and policy fine-tuning by Beijing, the metal is on track to post its smallest quarterly gain in two years.
The most-traded January copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange gained 1.19 percent to close at 59,770 yuan ($9,500) a metric ton.
The ShFE temporarily raised trading margins for all its futures contracts from September 28 in a bid to control price volatility ahead of the mid-Autumn and Chinese National Day holidays.
Some fresh appetite for risk stirred on Friday after Spain unveiled a crisis budget that many saw as a step towards a bailout to stabilize its public finances.
This helped perk up the euro against other currencies, easing pressure on metals. A weaker dollar makes commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies.
But signs of slowing global growth persisted in Asia, where South Korea's industrial output contracted for the third consecutive month, while Japan's industrial output fell more than expected in August.
Also from the United States, orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods fell sharply in August, suggesting the main engine of the economic recovery was stalling even as a report showing a drop in new claims for jobless aid offered a hopeful signal on the labor market.
"It's looking more and more like stimulus will be the catalyst needed for a year-end rally in commodities but that would appear to be a shaky foundation upon which to build a bullish view," RBC Capital said in a note.
"(It's) likely any year-end strength will be used as a selling opportunity by both the trade and macro community look(ing) for a dip next year as there are still few signs that any kind of global recovery is underway."
CHINA STOCK RISING
Bonded copper stocks in Shanghai's customs cleared zones are again on the rise, several traders said, with inventory held by a large warehouse eclipsing record peaks seen at the start of the year.
Total copper stocks held in Shanghai were sitting around 650,000 metric tons, according to several traders with operations in Shanghai, up from around 620,000 metric tons at the start of August.
Bonded stocks are typically imported copper stored in bonded warehouses after arrival in China that has not yet assessed for a local 17 percent value-added tax.