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RTRS:EURO GOVT-Spanish bonds outperform but recent ranges hold
 
* Spain rallies and Bunds fall, bailout uncertainty persists
* Market positioning light heading into U.S. payrolls data
* Impatience over possible Spain bailout delay set to grow

By William James
LONDON, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Spanish bonds rallied and German
debt fell on Friday, though both remained bogged down by
question marks over Madrid's readiness to seek a bailout.
While investors waited for fresh signals from Spain, the
day's focus fell on U.S. labour market data, a key influence on
Federal Reserve policy. The non-farm payrolls report was due at
1230 GMT and forecast to show the creation of 113,000 jobs in
September.
But market participants said the data was unlikely to have
more than a fleeting impact on euro zone markets, with the U.S.
central bank already committed to loose monetary policy and
investment strategies centering more on events closer to home.
"I'm not sure ...there will be a strong reaction," said BNP
Paribas strategist Patrick Jacq.
"There will be a reaction but unless it is a zero or 300
(thousand) print it will be a temporary one. Even if it's 150
instead of 110, that's just 0.01 percent of the pool of workers
- it's almost nothing."
Bund futures slipped 36 ticks to 141.31. The
contract has been contained by the Sept. 28 high of 141.95 and
Oct. 2 low of 141.10 in recent sessions, and was considered
unlikely to break that range without new developments in Spain.
Spanish bond yields fell 14 basis points to 5.78 percent on
10-year debt, and two-year bonds
dropped to 3.32 percent, down 6 bps. The fall unwound a rise in
the previous session but did not break new ground as trading
remained low-volume and choppy.
Among the region's other higher-yielding bonds, debt issued
by Portugal rallied sharply on the day. Ten-year yields
fell 39 bps to a three-week low of 8.32 percent
"There's not much flow behind it, but some people are
betting that things are going to get a bit better for them after
the bond swap and, who knows, maybe the ECB is even going to
intervene there at some point. But it's all speculation at this
point," one trader said.
Earlier this week, Portugal carried out a swap to exchange
bonds maturing next year for longer-dated debt, described by the
country's debt agency head as a first step towards regaining
market access.
Morgan Stanley recommended buying long-dated Portuguese
bonds as the country edges back toward issuing debt.

CLOUDY OUTLOOK
Over the medium term, analysts said price developments still
hinged on what Spain does to resolve its high debt costs while
restoring growth to its recession-ravaged economy.
An external aid programme is politically unpalatable for
Madrid, but would activate the European Central Bank's bond
buying plan -- seen by markets as a powerful tool to lower
borrowing costs and bring the bloc's debt crisis under control.
The prospect of ECB action prompted short-term bonds, where
the bank's buying would be focused, to rally sharply during
August but perceived delays by Spain on a bailout request has
pushed yields slowly away from their lowest levels.
Next week's meeting of euro zone finance ministers had
previously been flagged as an opportunity for Spain to make an
aid request, but expectations have been pared back and the event
may even result in further pressure on Spanish debt.
"For sure everyone will keep an eye on the meeting but I
don't think there's expectations of a firm decision. It could
even expose more the differences in opinion," said Elwin de
Groot, senior market economist at Rabobank.
"Very short term, this could inject even more uncertainty
and therefore a more negative sentiment in the market."
Source