RTRS:METALS-Copper bounces from 2-mth low; growth woes cap gains
* China copper demand seen up 5.5 percent at 8.1m T next yr
-Antaike
* LME lead moves into backwardation
* Coming Up: Euro zone business climate, Oct ;
1000 GMT
(Adds detail, updates with closing prices)
By Melanie Burton
SINGAPORE, Oct 30 (Reuters) - London copper rebounded on
Tuesday from a near two-month low hit in the prior session, with
lower prices spurring some buying, but global growth worries
could cap gains in trade dampened by one of the biggest storms
ever to hit the United States.
Sluggish growth prospects in the United States and Europe, a
string of downbeat corporate earnings reports, a U.S. election
and China's leadership transition in November have all combined
to ward off investors while consumers are reluctant to lock in
large orders, traders said.
The picture is not likely to change much until well into the
new year, when China's new leadership has had time to settle in
and formulate new policies to spark growth, they said.
"There is absolutely no appetite at the minute to pick up
metals as an investment. In September QE3 came in and euphoria
pushed prices up. But if you look at real data, it's not
improving," said Dominic Schnider, head of commodity research at
UBS Wealth Management.
"We probably won't get an acceleration in Chinese demand
until March."
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange had
climbed 0.51 percent to $7,738.50 a tonne by 0719 GMT, reversing
losses from the previous session, when it plumbed its lowest
since Sept. 5, at $7,670 a tonne.
Prices, up almost 11 percent on the year by mid-September
after Europe and the United States embarked on quantitative
easing (QE) measures, have since given back almost all their
gains, eroded by a flagging growth rate in China and Europe's
festering debt problems. Copper is now up less than 2 percent on
the year.
Quantitative easing tends to inflate the value of hard
assets such as commodities, because the relative value of paper
currency falls as more cash enters circulation.
The most-traded February copper contract on the Shanghai
Futures Exchange fell 0.18 percent to close at 56,480
yuan ($9,000) a tonne.
China is the world's top metals consumer, accounting for 40
percent of refined demand last year.
European stocks signalled a flat start, with Wall Street
closed as investors digested mixed corporate results. MKTS/GLOB]
The storm Sandy roared ashore with fierce winds and heavy
rain on Monday near the gambling resort of Atlantic City, New
Jersey, after forcing evacuations, shutting down transport and
interrupting the presidential campaign.
A slightly stronger euro against the dollar offered metals
support, because a weaker dollar makes commodities cheaper for
holders of other currencies.
Still, with prices of most metals near 2-month lows on
Monday, traders noted industrial buyers had been tempted out.
"There is clearly scope for further price erosion in the
short term, but we think selective consumer buying will now
provide some support," RBC Capital said in a note.
CHINA RECOVERY
Consumption of refined copper in China will rise 5.5 percent
to about 8.1 million tonnes next year as the economy picks up in
the world's top consumer of the metal, a senior analyst at
state-backed research firm Antaike said. [ID:nT9E8K700K
China's economy grew an annual 7.4 percent in the third
quarter, leaving it on course for its slowest full year of
growth since 1999.
China's Zijin Mining plans to expand
its refined copper production by 50 percent to 300,000 tonnes a
year from 200,000 tonnes, Chairman Chen Jinghe said on Tuesday.
In other metals, cash lead jumped to a $4 premium on
Monday's evaluations, against the three-month contract,
as battery makers sought scarce supplies of the metal ahead of
the peak winter battery replacement season.
Costs to secure lead deliveries in Europe have doubled this
month to their highest in four years as recyclers, hurt by
soaring scrap prices, protect profits by producing less and
asking ever higher prices from battery makers or
merchants.
PRICES
Base metals prices at 0719 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct Move YTD pct chg
LME Cu 7738.50 39.50 +0.51 1.82
SHFE CU FUT FEB3 56480 -100 -0.18 2.02
HG COPPER DEC2 351.35 1.90 +0.54 2.26
LME Alum 1899.00 2.00 +0.11 -5.99
SHFE AL FUT JAN3 15285 -85 -0.55 -3.53
LME Zinc 1840.25 15.25 +0.84 -0.26
SHFE ZN FUT JAN3 14680 -05 -0.03 -0.78
LME Nickel 16000.00 50.00 +0.31 -14.48
LME Lead 2015.00 7.50 +0.37 -0.98
SHFE PB FUT 15180.00 10.00 +0.07 -0.69
LME Tin 19951.00 396.00 +2.03 3.91
LME/Shanghai arb^ 34
Shanghai and COMEX contracts show most active months