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RTRS:EURO GOVT-Bunds steady, focus turns to U.S. events
 
Nov 1 (Reuters) - German government bonds were steady on Thursday with markets hunkering down ahead of the last U.S. jobs numbers before a presidential election that may turn minds briefly away from the euro zone's woes.

Few developments were expected in the three-year saga of debt and state bailouts, leaving investors to focus on U.S. non-farm payrolls on Friday, with President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney effectively tied ahead of Tuesday's polls.

One trader said bond markets were leaning towards a Obama win which is expected to benefit Treasury prices, although few players were making large bets ahead of the vote.

"The risk is that Romney wins as markets seem to be expecting Obama," he said.

"But judging by the flows we're seeing, it doesn't look like the big hedge funds are getting involved and the real money, the asset managers, they've hit their targets for the year so there's not much appetite to take risks before the end of the year, particularly in Europe."

Although many different outcomes are possible with the Presidency, the Senate and the House of Representatives up for grabs, Barclays rate strategists summarise that an Obama win would see the Federal Reserve continue with an easy monetary policy but risk hitting the so-called "fiscal cliff" which would see spending cuts and tax hikes. That, they say, would help U.S. Treasuries rally.

Romney has opposed the Fed's bond-buying programme and is also expected to make the more aggressive cuts in Federal spending needed to avoid the fiscal cliff, something Barclays' analysts said could drive a Treasuries sell-off.

Any initial reaction of U.S. government bonds to the results is likely to have a knock-on effect to euro zone bond markets, dictating short-term direction for German Bunds, but analysts say the effect may not last long.

"Markets are still assuming the U.S. economy will continue to grow at a modest pace both this year and next," said Nick Stamenkovic, rate strategist at RIA Capital Markets.

"If there are signs that the fiscal cliff will pose a greater downside risk, then clearly that will support Treasuries and in turn Bunds, but the dominant factor in Europe is still going to be the ECB's potential action in Spain and the ongoing situation in Greece."

STASIS

The euro crisis is largely on hold while Greece hammers out a deal to secure more bailout money later this month in order to avoid bankruptcy, and there is no sign Spain is likely to ask for aid soon.

December Bund futures were 4 ticks lower at 141.64, holding around the middle of the trading range in place since June having failed to break above 142.00 earlier this week.

"The Bund future repeatedly ran into technical resistance in the 141.85-142.00 area," Commerzbank strategists said in a note.

"This suggests that a slide back to the 140.88/66 area could be on the cards near-term," they added, referring to levels that equate to the 55-day moving average and the 50 percent retracement of the last rally.

Ten-year German government bond yields were around half a basis point higher at 1.47 percent.

While all major European markets were open, trading volume was expected to be thin, due to public holidays in France, Italy, Spain and parts of Germany for All Saints day.

Spanish and Italian bond yields were broadly steady with 10-year paper yielding 5.64 percent and 4.95 percent respectively
Source