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WSJ:Euro-Zone Manufacturing Still in Decline
 
By ALEX BRITTAIN

Euro-zone manufacturing activity shrank for the 15th straight month in October as exports weakened, indicating that the 17-nation economy as a whole had deteriorated at the start of the fourth quarter.

The weak manufacturing poll from data company Markit underscores the fragility of exports from the euro zone as demand from other countries remains low. That is depriving the region of a crucial source of growth as its leaders attempt to patch up their economies and curtail the debt crisis.

Markit said Friday its monthly purchasing managers' index for the 17-nation euro area fell to 45.4 in October from 46.1 in September.

"The [euro-zone] manufacturing sector opened the final quarter of 2012 on a disappointing footing, as the downturn in the sector gathered pace," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit.

The decline further below the 50 level, which separates growth from contraction, means activity declined more rapidly in October than September. An earlier "flash" estimate for October had been slightly lower, at 45.3.
The survey gives the latest evidence that euro-zone economic activity is failing to respond to efforts by euro-zone leaders and the European Central Bank to quell the fiscal crisis that has pushed several of the bloc's weaker members to take foreign aid and put the future of the euro up for question.

Though fears of a euro-zone breakup have receded—thanks largely to a bond-buying plan by the ECB to keep struggling nations' borrowing costs down—conditions in the real economy have continued to deteriorate. Unemployment in September climbed to a record 11.6% of those eligible for work, and consumers and businesses are at their gloomiest in three years, suggesting there is little immediate chance of a rebound in spending to propel the economy.

Euro-zone gross domestic product shrank 0.2% in the second quarter of the year from the first. The first estimate of output in the third quarter will be published Nov. 15.

The ECB's governing council will meet Nov. 8 to decide whether to take further action to bolster the economy, which could include a cut to its key interest rate, currently a record-low 0.75%.

Annalisa Piazza, economist at brokerage Newedge, said the ECB is unlikely to ease policy at the November meeting, having put the onus on governments to solve their problems now that market tensions have eased. "The ECB is in a wait-and-see mode," she said.

The rate of the contraction in manufacturing steepened in Germany, Italy, Spain, Austria and Greece, Markit said. The poll for the Netherlands showed the sector fell back into contraction after growing in September.

Of the eight countries surveyed for which Markit gives detailed figures, only Ireland registered growth in manufacturing.

Source