BS: Australian dollar lower ahead of RBA rate decision
AAP
The Australian dollar is lower as markets wait to see whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut interest rates on Tuesday.
At 1700 AEDT on Monday, the currency was trading at 103.68 US cents, down from 103.85 cents on Friday.
It traded as low as 103.33 US cents on Monday morning amid expectations the RBA will cut the cash rate a quarter per cent to three per cent at its monthly board meeting on Tuesday.
But ANZ currency strategist Andrew Salter said the Australian dollar lifted following the release of official retail sales data for September.
"The retail sales data was slightly better than expected and I think that squeezed out a few people looking to short sell the currency," Mr Salter said.
Retail spending rose 0.5 per cent in September, seasonally adjusted, figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed.
Mr Salter said futures markets were currently pricing in around a 50-50 likelihood of a rate cut on Tuesday.
He said the RBA meeting would be the primary driver of the Australian dollar on Tuesday, and the currency was likely to fall if the central bank decided to cut.
"It (the currency's movements) will be heavily dependent on the RBA meeting, but even if they were to cut, we don't see the sell-off in the currency being particularly long lasting."
At 1700 AEDT, the Australian dollar was at 83.36 Japanese yen, unchanged from Friday, and at €80.80 cents, up from €80.53 euro.
Meanwhile, Australian bond futures prices are higher.
At 1630 AEDT on Monday, the December 10-year bond futures contract was trading at 96.920 (implying a yield of 3.080 per cent), up from 96.905 (3.095 per cent) on Friday.
The December three-year bond futures contract was at 97.420 (2.580 per cent), up from 97.410 (2.590 per cent).
Commonwealth Bank interest rate strategist Phillip Brown said the retail data also had little impact on the domestic bond market, which was waiting for Tuesday's rate decision.
"We had some good retail sales numbers today, but there wasn't much movement in markets, because everyone's waiting for tomorrow."
