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RTRS:UK gas prices drop on lower demand, improved LNG outlook
 
* Fall comes despite short system of 9.3 mcm/d

* UK storage levels down 3 pct since early November

* But LNG import outlook has improved

LONDON, Nov 8 (Reuters) - British wholesale natural gas prices fell on Thursday morning as lower consumption and an improved import outlook for liquefied natural gas (LNG) took pressure off an undersupplied system.

Gas prices for day-ahead delivery as well as for delivery within the day both fell by 1.15 pence between Wednesday and Thursday morning to 64.35 and 64.45 pence per therm respectively at 0915 GMT.

Analysts said that the drop was a result of lower demand.

"Consumption is forecast down for within-day and day-ahead, which is bearish for prompt gas prices. Meanwhile, UK continental shelf and Norwegian flows remain stable, giving a sideways signal for day-ahead gas prices," analysts at Thomson Reuters Point Carbon said.

On the LNG supply side, Britain's outlook was improving, with around 1 million cubic metres of LNG due to arrive in Britain between now and November 21.

Despite the lower gas demand and an improving LNG outlook, the system was expected to be undersupplied on Thursday, implying the need for gas storage withdrawals.

Gas demand was forecast to be 242.7 million cubic metres (mcm) on Thursday, around 5 percent below the seasonal norm, according to data from National Grid.

But with flows only seen at 233.4 mcm, the system would be 9.3 mcm short, requiring either imports from continental Europe, rising input of LNG into the system from Britain's import terminals or storage withdrawals.

"Although storage levels have dipped a bit since the beginning of the month, levels are still healthy and taking gas from storage is currently the easiest option for companies that are short gas," one utility gas analyst said.

Britain's gas storage sites were filled to an average of 95.58 percent on Wednesday evening, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, down from over 98 percent at the beginning of November.

Further out on the gas curve, prices for delivery next summer fell in line with the spot, trading at 61.55 pence at 0915 GMT, 0.65 pence below Wednesday morning's levels.

But traders said that prices may rise during Thursday should front-month Brent crude prices continue to lift.

"If Brent goes back above $108 a barrel, I'm pretty certain that gas prices will also begin to lift," one gas trader said.

In Britain's over-the-counter spot power market, prices fell ahead of Friday, which typically sees lower demand than other working days.

Day-ahead baseload power traded at 46.20 pounds ($73.86) per megawatt-hour (MWh), down 1.6 pounds from the previous session.

Meteorologists said that weather conditions were expected to remain near the seasonal norm in the coming days, with maximum temperatures seen just above 10 degrees Celsius.
Source