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FT:Euro shrugs off weak economic activity data
 
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The euro shrugged off worsening eurozone data on Thursday and pushed upwards to hit a three-week high as appetite for risk improved.
The single currency once again proved its resilience and gained 0.4 per cent against the dollar to as high as $1.2883 even as flash purchasing manager index data for the eurozone confirmed that the area’s recession had probably worsened this quarter.
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Ben May, European economist at Capital Economics said, the “increase in the headline composite index from 45.7 to 45.8 was broadly in line with the consensus expectation, but it only partially reversed the previous month’s fall and left the index below its third quarter average”.
“There is nothing here to alter the view that the worst of the eurozone recession is yet to come,” added May who noted that on past form, the data points to quarterly falls in GDP of about 0.4 per cent – bigger than the 0.1 per cent drop seen in the third quarter.
However, the single currency has now gained 1.1 per cent since the start of the week when it sat at $1.2736 and, along with other risk-on currencies, was supported on Thursday by Chinese PMI data.
The flash estimate showed that the indicator surged 3.1 points to 51.3 and hit a 13-month high. Société Générale’s Klaus Baader said that “arguably the most remarkable improvement was in the new export orders index which jumped 5.7 points to 52.4, which in turn was the highest reading in exactly two years.”
A ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, which appeared to hold overnight, and hopes that the eurozone can reach an agreement on Monday that will release bailout funds to Greece helped lift sentiment.
The dollar index fell 0.2 per cent to 80.8, to remain above its 200-day average, as the dollar traded flat against sterling at $1.5952. However, it should be noted that the Thanksgiving holiday in the US removed some liquidity from the market.
The yen continued to suffer on Thursday, dropping a further 0.1 per cent versus the dollar to Y82.22, its weakest level since the beginning of April. Market watchers noted there appeared to be real money joining the push with analysts increasingly targeting levels of Y90 versus the greenback.
The Japanese currency has now lost 4 per cent since since the announcement last week of early Japanese elections, to be held on December 16.
Shinzo Abe, head of the opposition Liberal Democratic party and current opinion poll favourite to be the next prime minister, has been a vocal proponent of powerful new easing measures being taken by the Bank of Japan.
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