ET:Copper steady; China economic pick up lends support
SINGAPORE: London copper was little changed on Monday after economic growth in top metals consumer China picked up speed in the fourth quarter even as annual growth slowed to its lowest since 1999, with turnover low due to a US holiday and the upcoming new year break in China.
A tepid recovery in Chinese consumption has underpinned copper so far this year but analysts expect slow trading conditions until after China's Lunar New Year holidays in February.
China accounts for around 40 per cent of global refined copper consumption. A slowing Chinese economy has curbed demand for copper, flagging the end of a decade-long bull run which has also dented the allure of the metal for investors.
"The market rallied on Friday because of the improving data from China," said Singapore-based analyst Bonnie Liu of Macquarie.
"We're coming into Lunar New Year. I think consumers were hurt last year when they restocked but faced little demand, so they are really cautious. That makes things really very quiet," she added.
China's economy grew at its slowest pace in 13 years in 2012, though a year-end spurt supported by infrastructure spending and a jump in trade signalled the foundation for the stable growth path Beijing says is vital for economic reform may be in sight.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange traded flat at $8,058.50 a tonne by 0703 GMT. It hit a one-week high of $8,130 a tonne in the previous session before closing the week more-or-less unchanged.
After strengthening to 2-1/2-month highs near $8,250 a tonne at the beginning of the year, copper prices have struggled to find momentum and last week touched a 2013 trough at $7,920 a tonne.
China's Lunar New Year holiday begins Feb. 11, while markets will reopen on Feb 18. US markets will be shut on Monday for Martin Luther King day, draining liquidity from the market.
LME three-month volumes were very low on Monday, with a turnover of less than 3,500 combined lots.
The most-traded April copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange slipped 0.33 per cent to 58,190 yuan ($9,400) a tonne.
Also robbing metals of direction was a mixed view out of the U.S. where consumer sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated in January, but where talks on resolving its debt ceiling appeared to be making progress.
But movement on talks regarding the U.S. debt impasse breathed some risk appetite into markets with European stock index futures pointing to a slightly higher open on Monday which could later come in to support metals.
"We still like the base metals and are looking for higher prices in Q1, but we may have to wait until after the Chinese New Year holidays in February for a decent rally to materialise now," said RBC Capital in a research note.
Reflecting diminished appetite for metals from investors, hedge funds and money managers cut bullish bets in copper in the week to Jan. 15, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday.
LEAD TO OUTPERFORM A severe cold snap in China over winter could fuel a resurgence in demand for lead, the top material used in the battery sector, said Deutsche Bank in a research note.
"Meteorologists expect that China could continue to experience severe winter storms and freezing weather conditions over the next month," it said.
Extreme weather conditions generally weaken batteries and reduce battery life. The replacement battery sector accounts for 43 per cent of global lead consumption, according to the bank.
"We believe that the lead market could be one of the more attractive long opportunities this year. We would recommend buying on weakness," it said.
LME lead fell 0.17 per cent to $2,297 a tonne, losing 1.84 per cent on the year.