ENM: Pound sterling sharply down against US dollar and Euro; softer UK outlook and risk-demand drive GBP losses
The pound sterling (Currency:GBP) continues to shed weight on the global currency markets today.
In early afternoon trade in London:
The pound dollar exchange rate is 0.44 pct lower on a daily basis; GBP/USD is seen at 1.5732.
The pound euro exchange rate is 0.47 pct down at 1.1681.
The pound Australian dollar exchange rate is 0.2 pct lower at 1.5130. Please be aware that these are market rates; your bank will add their own spread before delivering you their final retail rate. An independent FX provider will ensure they beat your bank's offer. See more here.
UK GDP came in at -0.3 pct for the final quarter of 2012 on Friday; analysts had forecast a -0.1 pct reading.
Soon-to-be Governor Carney expressed disagreement with the idea that central banks were approaching their policy limits and suggested that policymakers retain ‘considerable flexibility’ in their pursuit of fostering an economic environment that is conducive to growth. GBP has fallen 3.3% in 2013.
Investor asset allocations do not favour GBP, CAD or AUD
Also driving the likes of the GBP down is a continued asset allocation away from safer-haven currencies into equities and other high-risk assets.
Eric Theoret at Scotiabank says the impact in FX markets of this change in attitude has been an unwinding of last year’s desperate move away from EUR and towards the Triple-A sovereign space of AUD, CAD and GBP.
"This theme accelerated last week and continues into this week," says Theoret.
What is more, the latest speculative positioning data out of the CFTC suggests we may have only seen the early signs of the shift, "suggesting there could be more to unwind. At the end of last year we had expected the Triple-A theme to play less of a role, but to still drive some CAD, AUD and GBP appreciation," says Theoret.
Meanwhile, Euro strength continues
At current levels EUR is flirting with important resistance levels against the US dollar.
"Most notable is 1.3492, which is the 50% Fibo retracement of the May 2011 to July 2012 collapse combined with the psychologically important 1.3500. So far EUR has failed to break above, but these are key levels to watch for direction," says Camilla Sutton at Scotiabank.
This weekend, Kenneith Rogoff said that Europe is not doing enough; while ECB member Coene suggest that the ideal situation is for the OMT to never be activated.
Germany auctioned 1-year bills at the first positive yield in over 6-months; while there continues to be some focus on whether or not Cyprus poses a stability risk to the Euro-region.
"There has been limited economic data. We have made no change to our year-end EUR target of 1.27, expecting bouts of uncertainty and instability to drive downside from current levels," says Sutton.