By Sara Sjolin, MarketWatch
LONDON (MarketWatch) — Crude-oil futures rose above $96 a barrel on Friday, as better-than-expected Chinese trade data confirmed a positive economic trend in the country, bolstering expectations for higher oil demand.
Crude oil for March delivery CLH3 +0.15% gained 21 cents, or 0.2%, to $96.04 a barrel, rebounding from a more than two-week low reached on Thursday.
Friday’s gains were fueled by rising optimism over China’s economic outlook, after trade data for January showed exports jumped 25% and imports climbed 28.8% from the year-ago period, giving the country a trade surplus of $29.2 billion. All three figures beat market expectations. See: China data helps lift most Asia stocks; Japan down
“The pattern of recent days thus remains unbroken, with market players responding to falling prices by taking the opportunity to buy. China’s sound import data are also a support for oil,” analysts at Commerzbank said in a note. “In addition, the reduction in Saudi Arabian oil output is probably likewise boosting prices,” they added.
Crude-oil prices are up 4.5% in 2013 so far and have improved 13% over the past three months, but analysts at Capital Economics in London, warned that commodity prices could soon swing the other way.
“There is growing skepticism about the “super-cycle” and diversification arguments that the usual suspects have been deploying to promote commodity investments,” the analysts said, noting that oil prices could see renewed weakness in the second half of the year.
“There are similarities here with the hype that surrounded dot.com shares in the late 1990s and mortgage-backed securities in the run-up to the global financial crisis of 2008,” they added.
However, it would be wrong to write off commodities completely, they said.
“Whereas investor demand for commodities has benefited from ultra-loose monetary policies, demand from end-consumers has lagged behind. Correspondingly, if the global recovery is about to enter a much stronger phase, commodities may finally be able to catch up.”
In the broader energy complex, most other futures were also showing positive moves.
Gasoline for March delivery RBH3 +0.85% recouped from a 4 cent decline on Thursday, tacking on 2 cents to trade at $3.02 a gallon.
Heating oil for the same month HOH3 +1.23% picked up 4 cents to $3.24 a gallon, while March natural gas rose 1 cent to $3.29 per million British thermal units.
Sara Sjolin is a MarketWatch reporter based in London. Follow her on Twitter @sarasjolin.
