TH: BCA wants high dollar to be used to fund infrastructure spending
While the currency is often cited as a negative for Australian business, there are huge positives that business thinks are being missed right now.
An investment binge may not be high on the list of priorities but spending money to remove bottlenecks that are holding back growth after full due diligence on the projects is on the BCA dream list.
Business concerns about the minority government are well-known, so how much better do they think the opposition will be if it wins the election?
At a BCA round table, boss Tony Shepherd confided: "They seem to recognise the importance of productivity and the need for business to grow to help the economy to grow."
The words are carefully chosen to avoid stepping on too many toes but is hardly a ringing endorsement either.
The banks are working with opposition Treasury spokesman Joe Hockey on his proposed financial service inquiry and are comforted by the fact he is taking a big-picture look with no plans to introduce any changes in the first term of a Coalition government.
That is music to the ears of the business community, which wants a government capable of setting a big-picture agenda and then ensuring individual decisions fit into the framework.
Consistency is a word used often.
The BCA is working on its own long-term economic vision for the country with four policy committees co-ordinating the study for release in late June.
From there the hope is the election campaign keeps well clear of any specifics for fear of locking the new government into the wrong programs.
The dreamtime scenario won't happen but the BCA figures it is worth aiming high.
The concern is while Australia is relatively well-placed, confidence levels are so uncertain it could easily fall the wrong way.
Australian consumers are still highly leveraged and business confidence is low, meaning board rooms are still risk-averse.
As noted yesterday, Wesfarmers' Richard Goyder thinks maybe boards are too risk averse but right now he can't see any change in that attitude.
In part it's the economy and the recovery from the global financial crisis and in part it's the ongoing technological changes.
GE's Steve Sargent noted: "There is not a business model that is not under threat."
In other words, there is enough change going on without the government making more changes.
Mine can be yours
BHP Billiton's Marius Kloppers has spent a lot of time talking about his high-quality assets in the portfolio and he will use this to help market the sale of the Gregory Crinum coalmine in Queensland.
Queensland coal was not high on the list of Kloppers's favourite assets, perhaps because of union issues and coal royalties, but for about $800 million, a customer can collect a good brownfields coking coalmine. It's not quite like buying a car from your grandmother but the quality of vendors will be high on the list of the claimed advantages. In the good years, the mine generated cashflow in the order of $500m.
The timing is also good in the wake of Rio Tinto's massive writedown on its developments in Mozambique et al which highlighted the risks of greenfield development. An operating mine might then be seen as a positive if you turn a blind eye to the aforementioned industrial management snafus and coal royalties.
UBS has the mandate to sell the asset for BHP and Mitsubishi.
Low expectations
THE best the market can hope for this earnings season is no more downgrades, which means that expectations are low and for the 2014 financial year the hope is for the good news to start flowing.
That's how Macquarie Equities strategist Tanya Branwhite sees it and so far so good. The first few results are in, Telstra was just ahead of expectations and the string of near-misses was not bad enough to shake confidence too much.
Next week will provide a better test, with 28 big names to report, covering the range from Wesfarmers to Rio to Commonwealth Bank and property stalwarts such as GPT and Mirvac.
Right now Macquarie thinks 2013 financial year earnings overall will be down by 2.5 per cent, largely because of the 20 per cent fall tipped for resource company profits, flat earnings from the banks and a better show from industrials, which are tipped to increase by 6.7 per cent.
Looking 12 months out, Macquarie predicts earnings will grow by 13 per cent. They will need to because right now the market is trading at an expensive 14.5 times forecast earnings.
Stock prices are allowed to move ahead of actual profits and of course the law of supply and demand says prices will rise as money moves from bonds into equities. But at some point earnings need to play catch-up to justify the faith.
The accompanying table highlights the changes to forward estimates as the season progresses.
So far there have been some positive upgrades for the overall market, same with property but resources estimates are heading south.
The wall of money driving multiple expansions can last for some time, but not forever, so the really good news from this week's reports would be some upbeat management commentary.
Hopes for this are not high.
Skilled in cost cuts
IF revenue isn't growing fast, then the best management can do is cut costs to prepare for some tailwinds.
Skilled Engineering's Mick McMahon has already established his credentials on this score, taking out $13.5 million in costs against a predicted $10m last financial year.
Next week Goldman Sachs is tipping a 19 per cent increase in earnings on just a 2.7 per cent increase in sales thanks in part to sharply lower depreciation and amortisation.
Skilled's stock price closed at $2.90 yesterday, a high since McMahon took the reins in November 2010, when the stock hit a low of $1.38 a share .
During the past 12 months the stock has delivered a total return of 46.1 per cent, outperforming the market by 36.7 per cent.
Given the lack of obvious macro-economic drivers such as employment growth and another leg in the resources boom, the big hope is that McMahon's internal savings will continue to grow.
He is also well aware of the appeal of dividend growth, which explains why an increase can also be expected next to keep his big three shareholders happy. They are company founder Frank Hargraves, who owns 12.9 per cent; Thorney with 12.9 per cent; and Invesco at 6 per cent.
Skilled's move to a new head office in Hawthorn last year means Hargraves, who lives nearby, is a frequent visitor.
The office replaces the company's five previous offices in Melbourne, which saves costs and puts everyone under the same roof, boosting information sharing and other "cultural" benefits.
This co-location strategy has been rolled out in every state.
There are now 400 people at head office and another 60 will join soon.
With in-house training rooms up and in operation, McMahon says the focus now is on "process improvement", which means getting rid of administrative paper, moving everything online and scrapping the 27 pages that new hires had to complete.