RTRS:METALS-Copper heads for gains in May after 3-month drop
* Copper treads water Friday ahead of China PMI
* Official China PMI seen barely expanded in May
* One worker killed at new collapse at Grasberg mine
* Coming Up: Euro zone inflation at 0900 GMT
By Manolo Serapio Jr
SINGAPORE, May 31 (Reuters) - London copper futures were
little changed on Friday as investors adopted caution ahead of a
key factory activity report in top consumer China, but are still
on track to end May higher after a three-month slide.
But news of a fresh tunnel collapse on Friday at the world's
second-largest copper mine, in Indonesia, may spur supply
concerns and help lift prices later in the global session.
China's official Purchasing Managers' Index, due out on
Saturday, is likely to show manufacturing activity barely
expanded in May, according to a Reuters poll. An initial
private-sector PMI survey last week showed a contraction for the
first time in seven months, fueling a sell-off in commodities
and equities.
While prices rebounded this month from the year's lows in
April, backed by supply outages and signs of firm demand in top
consumer China, a rally has eluded copper amid persistent doubts
on the outlook for the global economy.
"For a lot of investors, the fundamentals of copper are
still not compelling enough to give it a rally that's
sustainable," said Sijin Cheng, commodities analyst at Barclays
Capital.
"People are still trading it as a reflection of their take
on the macroeconomic environment which has been very confusing
lately."
While the recent flash HSBC PMI for China suggested that its
recovery could stall, U.S. data has pointed to an economy that
has held up reasonably well, but still faces headwinds that
could convince the Federal Reserve not to trim its monetary
stimulus in the immediate future.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was
nearly steady at $7,312.25 a tonne by 0704 GMT. The metal has
gained almost 4 percent for the month.
One worker was killed after a tunnel collapsed on Friday at
Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold Inc's Indonesia mine, a
union official said, calling on miners to stop work.
This would be the second deadly accident at the remote Papua
complex in just over two weeks after 28 people were killed in
another collapse.
Freeport said on Wednesday it had resumed some operations at
the mine. The suspension of work following the first accident
had helped lift copper to a six-week high of $7,533.75 a tonne
last week.
Also providing support to copper prices is the tighter
supply of scrap copper in China which could boost the country's
imports of refined copper. The scrap shortage pushed copper
premiums to eight-month highs of about 500 yuan ($82) a tonne
last week.
The premium, or the gap between spot prices of refined
copper and the front-month contract on the Shanghai
Futures Exchange, last stood at about 200 yuan.
The most-traded September copper contract on the Shanghai
Futures Exchange rose nearly 1 percent to close at
52,720 yuan a tonne.
Base metals prices at 0704 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct Move YTD pct chg
LME Cu 7312.25 -7.75 -0.11 -7.78
SHFE CU FUT SEP3 52720 500 +0.96 -8.60
HG COPPER JUL3 -- -- -- --
LME Alum 1897.75 -10.25 -0.54 -8.37
SHFE AL FUT SEP3 14840 175 +1.19 -3.29
LME Zinc 1906.00 -6.00 -0.31 -7.63
SHFE ZN FUT SEP3 -- -- -- --
LME Nickel 14837.00 37.00 +0.25 -13.51
LME Lead 2172.50 2.50 +0.12 -7.16
SHFE PB FUT 14185.00 90.00 +0.64 -6.98
LME Tin 20960.00 -140.00 -0.66 -10.43
LME/Shanghai arb^ -407
Shanghai and COMEX contracts show most active months
^ LME 3-month copper in yuan, including 17 pct VAT, minus SHFE third month