RTRS:VEGOILS-Palm oil rises, traders expect inventories to shrink again
* Malaysia June palm oil stocks seen at 1-yr low -Reuters
poll
* Palm could reach 2,400 ringgit on hopes of easing stocks
-trader
* Palm oil to test resistance at 2,391 ringgit -technicals
(Updates prices)
By Anuradha Raghu
KUALA LUMPUR, July 4 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures
inched higher on Thursday, spurred by early gains in China's soy
markets and investor optimism for stocks in the world's No.2
producer to shrink for a sixth straight month.
But prices stayed in a tight range between 2,366 ringgit and
2,384 ringgit as investors avoided risky bets ahead of an
official stocks report to be released next Wednesday by industry
regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB).
Palm oil inventories at the end of June are likely to have
dropped to a year-low of 1.74 million tonnes, a Reuters poll
showed, as demand continued to outstrip supply.
"The market today is moving higher on the back of friendly
Dalian soybean oil pricing. Palm has been down for some time, so
it's adjusting," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader with a foreign
commodities brokerage.
The benchmark September contract on the Bursa
Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 0.2 percent to close at
2,370 ringgit ($745) per tonne.
"The market is rangebound - we're waiting for the MPOB
report next week. People expect a further stock drawdown," the
trader said, adding prices may rebound to 2,400 ringgit.
Total traded volumes stood at 26,046 lots of 25 tonnes each,
below the average 35,000 lots.
Technicals showed palm oil was expected to test a strong
resistance at 2,391 ringgit, only a break above which could lead
to a further gain to 2,408 ringgit, Reuters market analyst Wang
Tao said.
Despite stronger exports buoyed by demand for the Muslim
festival month of Ramadan in July, palm has been weighed down by
laggard economic conditions in top two buyers China and India,
coupled with a bearish outlook on production. Prices fell 3.9
percent in the first half of 2013.
Output of the tropical oil in June is seen rising 6 percent,
the Reuters poll showed, suggesting the start of a higher
production cycle that typically begins in the second half.
"Rising production of palm oil in the second half of the
year has dampened price gains. Crude palm oil prices are likely
to come under pressure in the coming months," Phillips Futures
investment head Say Hwa said in a note.
In other markets, Brent oil slipped on Thursday from a
two-week high above $106 a barrel after Egypt's armed forces
toppled its president, easing concerns over the threat of supply
disruption in the Middle East.
In vegetable oil markets, the most-active January soybean
oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange rose
0.4 percent in the morning session, but was flat at close. The
U.S. soyoil markets were closed for the Independence Day
holiday.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1004 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL JUL3 0 +0.00 0 2370 0
MY PALM OIL AUG3 2376 +8.00 2370 2386 2869
MY PALM OIL SEP3 2370 +5.00 2366 2384 12917
CHINA PALM OLEIN JAN4 5928 +34.00 5902 5962 448638
CHINA SOYOIL JAN4 7346 +0.00 7326 7386 637956
CBOT SOY OIL DEC3 45.99 +0.00 0.00 0.00 0
NYMEX CRUDE AUG3 100.82 -0.42 100.71 101.49 12027
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
($1=3.183 ringgit)