WSJ:Pound Jumps As BOE Reveals Consensus Against QE; Bernanke Ahead
by Chiara Albanese
The pound rose almost 1% against the dollar on Wednesday, after minutes of the July meeting of the Bank of England, the first with Governor Mark Carney at the helm, showed that the decision to back away from reviving the bank's bond-buying stimulus program was unanimous.
Just after the release, the pound jumped to $1.5242 against the buck, near to a two-week high, while the euro dropped by 0.6% to trade at GBP0.8647.
"The unanimous vote, with all nine members in favor of no further stimulus was clearly a surprise for markets. The monetary policy committee is moving towards forward guidance over quantitative easing, which would have obviously been sterling negative," said Paul Robson, a currencies strategist at RBS.
Some risk of weakness for the currency persists, analysts warned. "Despite the unanimous vote to keep policy unchanged the minutes indicated that some [members of the committee] continued to see the need for additional monetary stimulus," said Valentin Marinov, a currencies strategist at Citigroup. "In addition, we suspect that investors would continue to speculate that while quantitative easing may not be on the table as yet, it need not be that far away from the table," Mr. Marinov added.
The knee-jerk reaction could easily unravel amid the week's key event: U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's Congressional testimony later Wednesday.
Mr. Bernanke will testify to the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee on monetary policy from 1400 GMT, with the speech anticipated by the publication of prepared remarks at 1230 GMT.
In both, investors will be watching for more clarity on the timing of the central bank's plan to reduce its $85 billion-a-month bond purchases program later in the year.
Mr. Bernanke is also expected to emphasize the separation between decisions on quantitative easing and core interest rates.
The dollar, which has been drifting moderately higher across the board with the exception of the pound in the runup Wednesday, is unlikely to post significant moves ahead of the event.
"Bernanke will try not to rock the boat as much as possible," said Alvin Tan, a currencies strategist at Societe Generale.
"We are not so sure there will be a major move in the aftermath of the release. It might well be a case of job already done, when in Boston last week Chairman Bernanke successfully got the markets to differentiate between tapering and tightening," said Derek Halpenny, a currencies strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitshubishi.
Also at 1400 GMT, the Bank of Canada is set to announce its latest rate decision. "The actual policy rate decision itself is somewhat of a foregone conclusion with no change at 1%. In tandem with this announcement will be the release of the first Monetary Policy Report since Governor Poloz took the reins, however, we do not expect any fireworks with Poloz likely to maintain the same stance with the next move likely to be a hike, albeit not until the first quarter of 2015," Rabobank said.
At 1045 GMT, the euro was trading at $1.3147 against the dollar, compared with $1.3145 late in New York, according to trading system EBS.
The dollar was at Y99.66 against the yen, compared with Y98.97, while the euro was at Y131.05 compared with Y130.58. The pound was trading at $1.5218 against the dollar, compared with $1.5047 late Tuesday in New York.
The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies, was trading at 74.64, compared with 74.53 late Tuesday in New York.
--Francis Bray contributed to the article.
Write to Chiara Albanese at chiara.albanese@dowjones.com
A summary of key levels for chart-watching technical strategists is below:
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF
Spot 1039 GMT 1.3149 99.66 1.5211 0.9388
3 Day Trend Bullish Range Range Bearish
Weekly Trend Bullish Bullish Bearish Bearish
200 day ma 1.3048 93.15 1.5492 0.9398
3rd Resistance 1.3261 100.49 1.5346 0.9535
2nd Resistance 1.3208 100.08 1.5303 0.9496
1st Resistance 1.3174 99.83 1.5246 0.9424
Pivot 1.3129 99.35 1.5122 0.9422
1st Support 1.3122 99.25 1.5105 0.9367
2nd Support 1.3100 98.88 1.5029 0.9341
3rd Support 1.3080 98.58 1.4993 0.9313
Forex spot: EUR/GBP
Spot 1039 GMT 0.8642
3 Day Trend Bearish
Weekly Trend Bullish
200 day ma 0.8426
3rd Resistance 0.8793
2nd Resistance 0.8725
1st Resistance 0.8710
Pivot 0.8678
1st Support 0.8633
2nd Support 0.8615
3rd Support 0.8597