WSJ:Dollar Firms Ahead Of Bernanke Testimony, US Data
By Clare Connaghan
The dollar firmed against the yen and commodity-linked currencies Thursday, but the moves were small and trading ranges tight as participants awaited Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's second date with Congress and a raft of U.S. data.
The greenback rose back above Y100 against the yen and gained ground against the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollar in European trading hours. With a lack of news to drive foreign-exchange markets, trading was subdued ahead of Mr. Bernanke's testimony on monetary policy to the Senate Banking Committee at 1430 GMT.
"We will watch Bernanke later....but there is probably less scope to shock or surprise us now," said Jane Foley, G10 foreign exchange strategist at Rabobank in London.
In his House testimony Wednesday, Bernanke reiterated that monetary policy will remain accommodative and tapering bond purchases will depend on the strength of U.S. data.
"The Fed is finally getting the message across, in that tapering is not tightening," said Ms. Foley, adding that with participants now understanding the difference, the focus returns to economic data.
Also Thursday, U.S. weekly jobless claims are due at 1230 GMT, while the Philadelphia Fed index of business conditions and the index of leading indicators both come out at 1400 GMT.
In other news, the pound firmed against the dollar and euro after data showed retail sales in June rose 0.2% month-to-month, a slightly faster increase than economists had predicted in a Dow Jones poll. Sales rose 2.2% year-to-year.
"With a second consecutive monthly rise in U.K. retail sales volumes, evidence that a consumer-led recovery is underway is growing," said Martin Beck, U.K. economist at Capital Economics. "While on the face of it, a monthly expansion in volumes of 0.2% in June looks like a fairly weak result in isolation, this is a decent outturn after the hefty 2.1% rise seen in May."
In emerging markets, the South African rand is trading steady against the dollar ahead of the South African Reserve Bank's decision on interest rates. The central bank is expected to keep rates on hold at 5% for a 12th straight month. "The probability of a surprise is extremely low given current domestic and external conditions," said emerging market strategists at Societe Generale.
At 1037 GMT, the euro was trading at $1.3112, compared with $1.3125 late Wednesday in New York, according to trading system EBS. The dollar was at Y100.04, compared with Y99.57, while the euro was at Y131.15, compared with Y130.70. The pound was trading at $1.5242, compared with $1.5215 late Wednesday in New York.
The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against a basket of major currencies, was at from 74.85.
A summary of key levels for chart-watching technical strategists is below:
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF
Spot 1023 GMT 1.3110 100.04 1.5234 0.9430
3 Day Trend Range Range Bullish Bearish
Weekly Trend Bullish Bullish Bearish Bearish
200 day ma 1.3049 93.21 1.5489 0.9398
3rd Resistance 1.3208 100.75 1.5354 0.9534
2nd Resistance 1.3179 100.49 1.5303 0.9496
1st Resistance 1.3142 100.35 1.5267 0.9453
Pivot* 1.3130 99.52 1.5187 0.9405
1st Support 1.3074 99.70 1.5158 0.9384
2nd Support 1.3040 99.47 1.5129 0.9358
3rd Support 1.2992 99.32 1.5080 0.9313
Forex spot: EUR/GBP
Spot 1023 GMT 0.8603
3 Day Trend Bearish
Weekly Trend Bullish
200 day ma 0.8428
3rd Resistance 0.8725
2nd Resistance 0.8710
1st Resistance 0.8647
Pivot* 0.8650
1st Support 0.8595
2nd Support 0.8576
3rd Support 0.8533