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WSJ:Dollar Broadly Firmer; Hungary, Turkey Central Bank Decisions Eyed
 
By Clare Connaghan

The dollar firmed against most major currencies Tuesday in quiet trading with the focus turning to emerging markets, where central banks in Turkey and Hungary deliver interest rate decisions later in the day.

The greenback rose above Y100 against the yen and strengthened against the euro, pound and commodity-linked currencies of Australia, New Zealand and Canada in European trading hours despite no major news or data published. U.S. Treasury bonds were also moving, with the 10-year bond yielding back above 2.50% again, chipping away at the decline in yields seen Monday.

"There doesn't seem to be any major drivers," said Michael Sneyd, foreign-exchange strategist at BNP Paribas in London.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke appears to have calmed the markets ahead of the summer, with his testimonies last week reiterating that monetary policy will remain accommodative and reeling in bond purchases will depend on the strength of U.S. data.

"In terms of investor interest, it seems very low... they are stepping back from the market and not putting on a huge amount of the risk," said Mr. Sneyd.

But the lower volumes appear to be exaggerating small moves in currency markets, as Tuesday's run higher in the dollar suggests. Looking ahead, the data calendar is light with the U.S. house price index reading due at 1300 GMT.

In emerging markets, central banks in Turkey and Hungary are both due to give decisions on interest rates later, with contrasting outcomes expected.

"Turkey signaled rate hikes... while Hungary is likely to cut its rate again," said emerging market strategists at Barclays in a note to clients.

The Turkish lira is coming under a little bit of pressure against the dollar ahead of the 1100 GMT decision, with consensus among economists for the central bank to raise some rates in its latest effort to support the lira, which sunk to lifetime lows against the dollar earlier this month. A poll of ten economists by Dow Jones Newswires showed that half expect Turkey's central bank to raise its 6.50% lending rate by half a percentage point, while the other half expect an increase of a full percentage point.

In contrast, Hungary's central bank is expected to cut its policy rate to a record low 4% to help spur government growth.

"While a 12th consecutive cut is widely expected, the more interesting event will be the press conference at which National Bank of Hungary Governor Gyorgy Matolcsy is expected to offer a type of forward guidance for future monetary policy decisions," said Dan Bucsa, an economist at UniCredit in London.

For the first time since taking office in March, Mr. Matolcsy will hold a press conference at 1300 GMT, following the 1200 GMT rate decision.

At 1010 GMT, the euro was trading at $1.3175 against the dollar, compared with $1.3185, late Monday in New York, according to trading system EBS. The dollar was at Y99.98 against the yen, compared with Y99.67, while the euro was at Y131.74, compared with Y131.41. The pound was trading at $1.5343 against the dollar, compared with $1.5357 late Monday in New York.

The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against a basket of major currencies, was at 74.51 from 74.397.

A summary of key levels for chart-watching technical strategists is below:


Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF

Spot 1016 GMT 1.3175 99.97 1.5343 0.9390
3 Day Trend Bullish Bearish Bullish Bearish
Weekly Trend Bullish Range Bullish Bearish
200 day ma 1.3052 93.42 1.5483 0.9398
3rd Resistance 1.3264 100.63 1.5438 0.9478
2nd Resistance 1.3218 100.24 1.5396 0.9442
1st Resistance 1.3188 100.08 1.5383 0.9400
Pivot* 1.3173 100.00 1.5333 0.9367
1st Support 1.3150 99.55 1.5296 0.9322
2nd Support 1.3135 99.14 1.5258 0.9300
3rd Support 1.3107 98.88 1.5220 0.9270


Forex spot: EUR/JPY

Spot 1016 GMT 131.73
3 Day Trend Bearish
Weekly Trend Bullish
200 day ma 121.96
3rd Resistance 132.47
2nd Resistance 132.21
1st Resistance 131.84
Pivot* 131.64
1st Support 131.10
2nd Support 130.69
3rd Support 130.50

-Dow Jones Technical Strategist Francis Bray contributed to this story.
Source