BLBG:Asian Stocks Decline on Stimulus Bets; Kiwi, Rupee Gain
Asian shares fell the most in more than two weeks, while copper and oil retreated as investors weighed the withdrawal of Federal Reserve stimulus. New Zealand’s dollar and India’s rupee rallied.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.7 percent to 136.02 as of 8:15 a.m. in London, the most since July 8. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index swung between gains and losses. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures slipped 0.1 percent. New Zealand’s dollar gained 0.9 percent and the rupee added 0.4 percent. Copper slid 0.5 percent in London, while crude sank 0.4 percent in New York. Asian bonds declined.
Data today may show U.S. durable goods orders climbed and claims for jobless benefits fell, while German business confidence probably rose for a third month. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said yesterday the nation will accelerate railway construction to bolster an economy that’s forecast to expand at the slowest pace in 23 years.
“Everyone’s focused on the data,” said Koji Iwata, a vice president of foreign-exchange trading at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in New York. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has said “the economy would determine the timing of any changes in policy. From a policy perspective, the Fed is the closest major central bank to tightening.”
U.S. durable goods orders probably gained 1.4 percent in June, while the number of Americans continuing to claim jobless benefits fell by 89,000 in the week to July 13, Bloomberg economist surveys showed before the data’s release today. The German Ifo institute’s business climate index climbed to 106.1 from 105.9 in June, the surveys showed.
Topix Falls
While Bernanke has not set a calendar for reducing stimulus, 50 percent of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News between July 18 and 22 said the Fed will start trimming its $85 billion in monthly bond buying in September.
Japan’s Topix Index slipped 1.4 percent as Canon Inc., the world’s biggest camera maker, tumbled 5.4 percent after cutting its profit forecast. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) lost 0.6 percent, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index in Hong Kong dropped 0.2 percent.
China’s State Council also approved tax breaks for small companies and reduced fees for exporters, according to a statement after a meeting led by Premier Li. China is planning a railway development fund, the government said.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News cut forecasts for China’s growth this month, reaching a new median estimate of 7.5 percent, which would be the lowest since 1990.
Caterpillar Forecast
MSCI’s Emerging Markets Index sank 0.3 percent, dropping for a second day. Slowing growth in developing-nation economies and the possibility of reductions to U.S. stimulus pose risks to global expansion, South Korean Finance Minister Hyun Oh Seok said today.
LG Electronics Inc. (066570), the world’s second-largest television maker, sank 2.4 percent in Seoul as HMC Investment Securities Co. cut the stock to hold from buy, citing narrower-than-estimated smartphone margins. Komatsu Ltd., Japan’s largest construction machinery maker, dropped 2.4 percent after bellwether Caterpillar Inc. lowered its earnings target.
“We are a little bit disappointed in Asian growth, not only in earnings, but also in revenue particularly, and so people are reassessing that at this stage,” said Tim Schroeders, a portfolio manager who helps manage $1 billion in equities at Pengana Capital Ltd. in Melbourne.
India’s rupee rose as much as 0.6 percent to a five-week high to 58.865 per dollar. South Korea’s won depreciated 0.3 percent to 1,116.11 per dollar, falling from the strongest close since May 21, even as data showed the economy grew at the fastest pace in nine quarters in the April-to-June period. The Thai baht lost 0.4 percent.
Dollar Index
The Bloomberg Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, lost 0.2 percent after a 0.5 percent gain yesterday, which was the most since July 5. The yen added 0.4 percent per dollar after slipping 0.8 percent yesterday.
The New Zealand dollar appreciated to 80.04 U.S. cents. While keeping interest rates at a record low, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler said in a statement today monetary stimulus will need to be removed in future as the economy picks up.
Odds of an increase in New Zealand’s Official Cash Rate in January increased to about 50 percent, according to overnight interest-rate swaps. The OCR will remain on hold for the rest of 2013, Wheeler said.
Bond Yields
Yields (GNZGB10) on Australian government debt due in 10 years climbed nine basis points to 3.77 percent. New Zealand 10-year bonds yielded 4.11 percent, up three basis points. Japanese 20-year yields gained 2.5 basis points to 1.74 percent, the highest since July 10.
Ten-year Treasury yields added one basis point to 2.60 percent, after rising eight basis points yesterday. The U.S. is scheduled to auction $29 billion of seven-year notes today.
Stimulus from central banks and better-than-estimated corporate earnings have driven the S&P 500 up more than 150 percent from its March 2009 low. The rally has pushed the gauge’s valuation to 16.3 times reported profit, approaching the highest level since May 2010, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Dow Chemical Co., General Motors Co., Newmont Mining Corp. and Amazon.com Inc. are among companies poised to report earnings today. Facebook Inc. and Baidu Inc. (BIDU), owner of China’s largest Internet search engine, surged at least 14 percent in extended U.S. trading after posting profit that beat estimates.
Of the 194 companies in the S&P 500 (SPX) that have posted quarterly results so far, 75 percent have exceeded analysts’ profit estimates and 59 percent have topped sales projections, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Oil Production
Copper for delivery in three months fell to $7,020 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, declining for the first time in six days. Nickel dropped 0.3 percent.
West Texas Intermediate crude slipped to $104.98 a barrel in New York, after tumbling 1.7 percent yesterday, the most in more than a month. The Energy Information Administration said crude production rose 0.9 percent to 7.56 million barrels a day, the most since December 1990. Crude and fuel supplies decreased, the report showed.
The cost of insuring Asia-Pacific bonds against non-payment rose, according to traders of credit-default swaps. The Markit iTraxx Asia index of 40 investment-grade borrowers outside Japan jumped seven basis points to 141 basis points, Westpac Banking Corp. prices show. The gauge is poised for its third day of gains, the longest stretch in more than a month, according to data provider CMA.
To contact the reporters on this story: Jae Hur in Tokyo at jhur1@bloomberg.net; Emma O’Brien in Moscow at eobrien6@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Patterson at mpatterson10@bloomberg.net