WSJ:Crude Futures Tread Water; U.S. Shutdown, Rising Supply In Focus
By ERIC YEP
Crude-oil futures traded sideways in Asia Tuesday as investors paused to reassess the impact of the ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown and rising global oil supply.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in November traded at $102.96 a barrel at 0531 GMT, down $0.07 in the Globex electronic session. November Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange fell $0.27 to $109.41 a barrel.
Nymex crude for November delivery had settled lower in floor trade, down ten of the past thirteen sessions, while Brent settled higher on reports of violence in Egypt.
Markets continued to fret over the stalemate in Washington as the possibility of a U.S. debt default looms if the debt ceiling isn't raised before the October 17 deadline.
"Even if default is eventually avoided, the delay and brinksmanship game has raised policy uncertainty and inflicted real economic costs in terms of impacted consumer and business confidence," Singapore-based OCBC said in a note.
The house said markets are operating partially blind as U.S. economic data are held back due to the shutdown, making the probability of tapering at the October Fed meeting even more unlikely.
Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute, a trade body, will issue weekly U.S. oil inventory data, that's expected to show a decline on healthy supply levels.
Rising visible crude loadings point to an improving supply picture with scheduled crude loadings in October set to rise to the highest level since May after touching three-year lows this summer, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note.
Visible global crude loadings in October will increase by 188,000 barrels a day from a month earlier, and by more than 524,000 barrels above August lows, the house says.
Higher oil supply is expected from regions like Russia, West Africa, the North Sea and Iraq.
"We still expect the price of both Brent and WTI to fall over the next year as supply from both conventional and unconventional sources improves and demand remains weak in both developed and emerging economies, but Brent should fall by more, reducing the Brent-WTI spread," Capital Economics said in a note.
The Brent-WTI spread is currently at around $6.40 a barrel.
Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for November--the benchmark gasoline contract--fell 31 points to $2.6230 a gallon, while November heating oil traded at $3.0036, 57 points lower.
ICE gasoil for October changed hands at $924.50 a metric ton, down $1.75 from Monday's settlement.