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TRD: Dollar Pauses Ahead Of Fed Statement
 
By Michael Kitchen, MarketWatch , Saumya Vaishampayan

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. dollar inched lower against some rivals on Wednesday, but moves were muted ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve's latest policy statement at 2 p.m. Eastern.

Private employers created 130,000 jobs in October, the lowest gain in six months, Automatic Data Processing Inc. said Wednesday. That's less than the 145,000 jobs added in September and lower than expectations of a 150,000 job gain, according to a MarketWatch poll.

U.S. consumer prices gained a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in September, on par with economist expectations, the Labor Department said Wednesday. The CPI index rose 1.5%.

The euro (EURUSD) bought $1.3750, slightly more than $1.3743 on Tuesday, while the British pound (GBPUSD) edged up to $1.6065 from $1.6035.

Economists widely expect the Fed to delay its "taper" -- the slowing of its current pace of stimulative asset purchases -- due to a recent slowdown in the U.S. recovery, with the market's main focus now on clues as to when the taper will begin.

"The only way that the Fed could catch the market by surprise is if they brush off the recent data deterioration and appear less dovish. The chance of this happening is very slim but not out of the question because the recovery is widely expected to regain momentum in November after slowing in October," wrote BK Asset Management managing director Kathy Lien.

With the Fed expected to keep its easing at current levels and the outlook for the U.S. economy uncertain, Crédit Agricole said the dollar was unlikely to see a sharp rally in the near future. However, they said more limited gains were possible.

The ICE dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six rivals, declined to 79.564 from 79.644 late Tuesday in North America. The current level marks a decline from the index's 2013 high of 84.58 as of July 9's close, according to FactSet data.

The WSJ Dollar Index , an alternate measure of the U.S. unit, fell to 72.17 from 72.24.

The Crédit Agricole analysts specifically pointed to scope for gains against the euro, which they said could suffer from upcoming European bank stress tests.

Likewise, "the relative outlook for monetary policy is likely to move in the dollar's favor. That is, we suspect there is more room for the [European Central Bank] to surprise on the dovish side as the market gets more comfortable with a 2014 taper from the Fed," they said.

They also cited "likely upside risk to U.S. growth surprises, given the recent deterioration in U.S. forecasts."

The dollar (USDJPY) fetched Yen98.23, near Yen98.19 late Tuesday, while the Australian dollar (AUDUSD) rose to 95.01 from 94.77 U.S. cents. The Australian dollar dropped on Tuesday after its central bank governor said the currency's value was too high.
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