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BLBG: U.S. Stock-Index Futures Rise Amid Stimulus Speculation
 
U.S. stock-index futures advanced, signaling a rebound from yesterday’s drop, as investors awaited this week’s data on jobs and economic growth for guidance on how long the Federal Reserve will maintain stimulus.
Time Warner Inc. gained 2.6 percent after reporting profit that surpassed analysts’ estimates. Newmont Mining Corp. added 0.5 percent as gold climbed. Tesla Motors Inc. tumbled 11 percent as vehicle sales missed some analysts’ estimates. Twenty-First Century Fox Inc. dropped 0.4 percent after posting profit that trailed projections.
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) expiring in December gained 0.5 percent to 1,764.60 at 8:27 a.m. in New York. The benchmark gauge declined 0.3 percent yesterday as homebuilders retreated. Dow Jones Industrial Average contracts increased 60 points, or 0.4 percent, to 15,610 today.
“The Fed is in no rush to withdraw support,” said Manish Singh, who helps oversee $2 billion as head of investments at Crossbridge Capital in London. “What will make the Fed move toward reducing stimulus is economic growth, a lower unemployment rate and higher inflation rate all taken together, and we’re not there yet.”
Investors are watching data to gauge the health of the U.S. economy after the Fed said last week it needs to see more evidence of sustained improvement before slowing the pace of its $85 billion monthly bond purchases. The S&P 500 has surged 24 percent this year, heading for the best annual performance since 2003, as company earnings beat forecasts and the central bank maintained stimulus measures.
Data Watch
A release at 10 a.m. New York time today may show the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators increased 0.6 percent in September, after a 0.7 percent gain a month earlier. The report, which was due Oct. 18, was postponed because of last month’s government shutdown.
Reports later this week may show the U.S. economy slowed in the third quarter and employers hired fewer workers in October.
Commerce Department data tomorrow may show gross domestic product grew at a 2 percent annualized rate after a 2.5 percent pace in the second quarter, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Payrolls rose by 120,000 workers last month after a 148,000 gain in September, while the jobless rate rose to 7.3 percent, Labor Department figures may show on Friday.
Target Rates
Fed officials have repeated in every policy statement since December that their target interest rate will remain near zero “at least as long as” unemployment exceeds 6.5 percent, so long as the outlook for inflation is no higher than 2.5 percent. Consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in September, indicating the cost of living is running below the Fed’s goal.
“Given that the unemployment rate is near 7 percent, close to the Fed’s 6.5 percent level, it’s more likely that the Fed will lower the threshold than start to taper,” Singh said.
Two separate papers by members of the Fed board yesterday argued the need to maintain a loose monetary policy to support growth in the world’s biggest economy.
William English, head of the Division of Monetary Affairs, supported the Fed’s strategy of maintaining low interest rates while unemployment is above 6.5 percent and wrote that an even lower threshold may be helpful. Another paper by David Wilcox said the weakness of the U.S. economy calls for a “highly accommodative monetary policy.”
“Our initial assessment is that they considerably increase the probability that the FOMC will reduce its 6.5 percent unemployment threshold for the first hike in the federal funds rate,” Jan Hatzius, chief economist of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., wrote yesterday, referring to the studies.
Earnings Scorecard
Of the 421 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings so far, 75 percent have beaten analysts’ profit forecasts, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Income for the broad index probably increased 4.1 percent in the third quarter, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Time Warner gained 2.6 percent to $69.99. The owner of the cable channels TNT, CNN and HBO boosted profits as the networks benefited from higher programming fees and advertising.
Newmont Mining, the world’s second-biggest gold producer, climbed 0.5 percent to $27.50 as the price of the precious metal advanced for the first time in seven days.
Tesla plunged 11 percent to $157 after saying it delivered about 5,500 of its Model S vehicles in the third quarter. Brian Johnson, an auto analyst at Barclays Plc, had expected 5,820, while Dan Galves of Deutsche Bank AG estimated the company would ship 5,850 cars.
Fox lost 0.4 percent to $33.74 after saying profit from continuing operations fell to 33 cents a share, from 95 cents a year earlier. Analysts on average had predicted 35 cents a share, according to a Bloomberg survey.
Twitter Inc., the San Francisco-based short-message Internet service, will probably set the price for its initial public offering tonight and begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange tomorrow. It’s likely to raise more than $1.75 billion in a deal several times oversubscribed, two people with knowledge of the matter said this week.
To contact the reporter on this story: Namitha Jagadeesh in London at njagadeesh@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew Rummer at arummer@bloomberg.net
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