RTRS:VEGOILS-Palm oil drops to 2-mth low on rising stocks, sluggish exports
* Prices drop to 2,497 rgt in early trade, lowest since Oct.
29
* Jan 1-10 palm exports plunge 22 pct m/m -cargo surveyors
* Malaysia's end-Dec palm stocks rise to 1.99 mln T -MPOB
* Indonesian biodiesel policy seen taking off -analyst
By Anuradha Raghu
KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures
fell to their lowest in more than two months on Monday,
stretching their losing streak to an eighth session as concerns
of higher stocks amid sluggish export demand continued to weigh
on investor sentiment.
Malaysian end-stocks rose to 1.99 million tonnes in December
from a month earlier, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said on
Friday, hitting their highest in nine months as lacklustre
demand offset a fall in output caused by monsoon floods.
Market players had expected inventories to fall to 1.96
million tonnes.
Weaker-than-expected exports in the Jan. 1-10 period also
dragged on benchmark prices. Cargo surveyors reported that
Malaysian palm exports plunged 22 percent from a month ago as
crude palm oil shipments slowed and buyers from India, Europe
and Pakistan cut back purchases.
"There's no incentive for prices to move higher. They are
still stuck in a range - trading between 2,480 and 2,550
ringgit," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage.
"Exports were bad... but maybe they will improve later in
the month," the trader added.
By the midday break, the benchmark March contract
on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had edged down 0.3
percent at 2,509 ringgit ($770) per tonne. Prices had dropped to
2,497 ringgit in early trade, their lowest since Oct. 29.
Total traded volume stood at 7,912 lots of 25 tonnes,
smaller than the usual 12,500 lots.
Technicals showed Malaysian palm oil is expected to rebound
to 2,555 ringgit per tonne as it has completed a five-wave
cycle, Reuters market analyst Wang Tao said.
A stronger ringgit also curbed buying interest from overseas
buyers and refiners. The Malaysian ringgit rose 0.35
percent to 3.2570 against the dollar on Monday, making the
ringgit-priced feedstock more expensive.
Analysts said lower Malaysian imports of palm oil from
neighbouring Indonesia signalled that the top producer is
serious in carrying out its new policy of requiring a higher
percentage of palm oil in its biodiesel blend, and will support
prices in the long term.
"Note that in December 2013, Malaysia's palm oil imports
from Indonesia remained very low at 24,574 metric tonnes or 72
percent lower year-on-year," said Alan Lim, an analyst with
Kenanga Investment Bank.
"We reckon that this is a sign that Indonesia is committed
to implementing its biodiesel plan, which spurred higher
domestic palm oil usage, thus curbing its export and lessening
the export competition with Malaysia," Lim said. "In the long
run, this is positive to crude palm prices and benefits both
countries."
In other markets, Brent crude edged lower toward $107 a
barrel after six nations struck a fresh six-month deal with Iran
to curb its nuclear programme and U.S. President Barack Obama
urged Congress not to impose additional sanctions on the
country.
In competing vegetable oil markets, the U.S. soyoil contract
for March fell 0.5 percent in early Asian trade. The most
active May soybean oil contract on the Dalian
Commodities Exchange dropped 0.6 percent.
Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 0531 GMT
Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
MY PALM OIL JAN4 0 +0.00 0 0 0
MY PALM OIL FEB4 2491 -8.00 2488 2510 437
MY PALM OIL MAR4 2509 -8.00 2497 2531 4603
CHINA PALM OLEIN MAY4 5800 -52.00 5792 5874 441212
CHINA SOYOIL MAY4 6620 -42.00 6618 6688 327036
CBOT SOY OIL MAR4 38.03 -0.20 38.01 38.23 1643
NYMEX CRUDE FEB4 92.35 -0.37 92.31 92.88 5616
Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel