BLBG: WTI Crude Swings Before Monthly Payrolls Data
West Texas Intermediate crude swung between gains and losses before data that may signal strength in the economy in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Brent was steady in London.
Futures were little changed in New York, poised for a second weekly decline. Payrolls probably rose by 215,000 in May, a Bloomberg News survey shows before a Labor Department report today. That compares with a 288,000 increase in April. Production in Libya, a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, was stable at 171,000 barrels a day as of yesterday, according to National Oil Corp.
“Today’s most important economic key number will be this afternoon’s U.S. employment status with the nonfarm payroll and unemployment rate data,” Michael Poulsen, an analyst at Global Risk Management Ltd. in Middelfart, Denmark, said in a report. “Expect volatility in the market around these numbers.”
WTI for July delivery was at $102.44 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 4 cents, at 9:37 a.m. London time. The contract slid 16 cents to $102.48 yesterday, the lowest close in three days. The volume of all futures traded was about 52 percent less than the 100-day average for the time of day. Prices have dropped 0.3 percent this week.
Brent for July settlement was 23 cents higher at $109.02 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude traded at a premium of $6.57 to WTI, compared with $6.70 on May 30.
U.S. Economy
Jobless claims in the U.S. climbed to 312,000 in the final week of May from 304,000 in the prior seven days, separate Labor Department figures showed yesterday. The nation will account for about 21 percent of global oil demand this year, according to forecasts from the International Energy Agency in Paris.
“The market will be sensitive to the payrolls data,” Mark Keenan, the head of commodities research for Asia at Societe Generale SA in Singapore, said by phone today. “Brent is reasonably well-supported at this level as inventories are quite tight across Europe. Libya’s exports may potentially drop to zero, which further tightens up the market.”
In Libya, production expanded to 171,000 barrels a day from 168,000 barrels the previous day, said Mohamed Elharari, a spokesman for the state-run NOC. Output from the nation, which holds Africa’s largest crude reserves, has shrunk in the past year because of unrest.
OPEC Supply
OPEC may cut exports in the four weeks to June 21 as routine refinery maintenance in Asia reduces consumption, according to Oil Movements, a tanker tracker. Shipments from 10 group members, excluding Ecuador and Angola, will probably drop by 110,000 barrels a day to 23.34 million, compared with 23.45 million in the four weeks through May 24, said Roy Mason, the founder of the consultant in Halifax, England.
OPEC, which pumps about 40 percent of the world’s crude, is scheduled to meet in Vienna on June 11.
Brent has long-term technical support along its 200-week moving average, at about $107.50 a barrel, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Buy orders tend to be clustered around chart-support levels.
WTI may fall next week amid concern that demand will be weaker, a separate Bloomberg survey shows. Seventeen of 34 analysts and traders, or 50 percent, estimated futures will decrease through June 13 while seven predicted a price gain.
To contact the reporters on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at bsharples@bloomberg.net; Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alaric Nightingale at anightingal1@bloomberg.net Rachel Graham