FXE: Crude Oil Traders Looking for 2.23 Million Barrel Drawdown
August Crude Oil traded sideways to lower in the pre-market session as traders took to the sidelines ahead of today’s Energy Information Administration weekly inventory data.
Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported an 875,000 barrel drawdown in crude oil stocks. This was a little friendly since traders were looking for a drop of 2 million barrels of crude. Today’s EIA report is expected to show a decline in supply of 2.229 million barrels of crude.
August Comex Gold futures traded flat most of the session on Wednesday because of limited activity in Asia. For the most part, traders stayed on the sidelines ahead of today’s key U.S. economic reports. Traders will be looking for clues as to the strength of the economy.
Later today, traders will get the opportunity to react to the latest private sector jobs data from ADP. This report which is used by some to predict tomorrow’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data is expected to show a gain of 212,000 new jobs in June. A weaker-than-expected number could pressure the U.S. Dollar which should underpin the dollar-denominated gold market.
Market players will also be listening to a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen at the International Monetary Fund. She is expected to talk about the impact of monetary policy. Gold prices surged in June after the Fed said it would keep interest rates low for an extended period of time and after data showed the U.S. economy shrank at an annual rate of 2.9% in the first quarter.
The EUR/USD weakened early in the session as investors remained flat ahead of speeches from Fed Chair Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. Additional selling pressure came after comments from French Prime Minister Manuel Valls who said in an interview with Les Echos newspaper that the European Central Bank needs to take steps to weaken the Euro.
Another reason for the sluggish trade today is tomorrow’s ECB policy meeting and the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. Traders are looking for Drahi to remain dovish in today’s speech while investors are hoping Yellen mentions the uneven recovery in the U.S. and reiterates the Fed dovish outlook.
The GBP/USD rose again on Wednesday after a report showing U.K. construction growth accelerated in June added to signs of strength for the economy. According to Markit Economics, the Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index increased to 62.6 from 60 in May. The strong economic data this week supports the case for the Bank of England to consider raising interest rates sooner than expected. According to the UK bond market, the BoE should begin raising rates something between January and March.