BLBG: U.S. Equity Index Futures Rise on Earnings; Ruble Gains
U.S. equity index futures climbed as company earnings from Twitter Inc. (TWTR) to Amgen Inc. (AMGN) beat analyst estimates. Russian shares rose and the ruble strengthened as some investors judged U.S. and European Union sanctions milder than they anticipated. Aluminum increased.
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures rose 0.3 percent at 7:20 a.m. in New York, with Twitter shares surging 26 percent in early trading. The Stoxx Euro 600 Index dropped 0.1 percent. Russia’s Micex Index (INDEXCF) added 2 percent and the ruble gained for the first time in five days against the dollar. Sweden’s krona weakened versus its 16 major peers after gross domestic product fell short of economist forecasts. Treasury 30-year yields were little changed near a one-year low. Aluminum climbed 0.8 percent and oil advanced 0.4 percent.
After about 78 percent of S&P 500 companies posted results this earnings season that beat analysts’ profit estimates, investors are focusing on unfolding events in Russia and the end of the Fed’s two-day monetary policy meeting. Economists expect U.S. central bank officials to reduce their stimulus program for the sixth time and debate the timeline for raising interest-rates. While U.S. sanctions against Russia were expanded yesterday to include three banks and a state-owned shipbuilder, after similar moves by the European Union, OAO Sberbank, the nation’s largest lender, was omitted from the list.
“The major risk factors for the market are geopolitics and the direction of U.S. interest rates,” Mark Matthews, Singapore-based head of Asia research for Bank Julius Baer & Co., which oversees about $377 billion, said by phone. “The market rally looks sustainable. The Fed will probably start raising rates in September 2015.”
Bond Purchases
The Fed Open Market Committee will scale back its monthly bond purchases to $25 billion from $35 billion, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, keeping it on pace to end the program late this year. The committee last month repeated that it’s likely to “reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps” and that it expects interest rates to stay low for a “considerable time” after the bond buying ends.
Chair Janet Yellen and her fellow policy makers are debating how long to keep interest rates near zero as the U.S. labor market improves and inflation moves closer to the Fed’s 2 percent goal. Data yesterday in the U.S. showed consumer confidence rose to the highest level since 2007.
Twitter, Amgen
Annualized GDP in the world’s largest economy probably rose by 3 percent in the second quarter, after shrinking 2.9 percent in the first three months of the year, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists before today’s data. U.S. companies added 218,000 workers to their payrolls in June, figures from the ADP Research Institute showed today. A monthly report on nonfarm payrolls in the U.S. is due Aug. 1, with economists predicting an increase of 231,000 workers in July, following June’s 288,000 gain.
Nasdaq 100 Index futures advanced 0.3 percent today, and Russell 2000 Index futures climbed 0.6 percent. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell 0.5 percent yesterday, closing 0.9 percent below its record.
Twitter Inc. surged in early morning New York trading after the microblogging company reported second-quarter revenue and user growth that topped analysts’ estimates. Amgen Inc. climbed 4 percent in pre-market trading after the world’s biggest biotechnology company by sales raised its annual profit estimate following its quarterly profit report that beat analyst projections.
Kraft, Metlife
Lorillard Inc., WellPoint Inc., Kraft Foods Group Inc. and MetLife Inc. are among S&P 500 companies reporting earnings today. Profits at members of the index probably increased 8.2 percent in the second quarter, while sales gained 4 percent, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
The Stoxx 600 fell today after a 0.3 percent gain yesterday. Gauges of construction companies and oil and gas shares in the index posted the biggest declines among 19 industry groups.
Total SA lost 2.2 percent after the French explorer reported second-quarter earnings dropped amid record low production and a slump in refining margins. Holcim Ltd. (HOLN) dropped 4.8 percent after the cement maker that’s merging with Lafarge SA posted profit that missed analysts’ estimates.
Barclays Plc (BARC) advanced 4.5 percent after the U.K.’s second-largest bank by assets returned to a profit in the second quarter. PSA Peugeot Citroen rallied 6 percent after Europe’s second-largest carmaker reported its first profit in three years.
Ruble, Micex
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index added 0.2 percent. The gauge has climbed 3 percent in July, its sixth month of gains and longest winning streak since 2006.
Russian stocks advanced for a second day, with the Micex trimming this month’s loss to 5.5 percent. Sberbank climbed 1.8 percent. The new U.S. sanctions target VTB Bank, Bank of Moscow and the Russian Agricultural Bank, as well as United Shipbuilding Corp. The EU barred state-owned banks from selling shares or bonds in Europe, restricted the export of equipment to modernize the oil industry and barred export of equipment with military uses.
The ruble gained 0.5 percent against the dollar, after closing yesterday at the weakest level since May 2. The government’s February 2027 bond halted a four-day decline, sending the yield five basis points lower to 9.42 percent.
“The markets were preparing for a much worse-than-expected outcome in the sanctions war,” Luis Costa, a London-based strategist at Citigroup Inc. in London, said in e-mailed comments.
Argentina Talks
Argentina said it will resume talks aimed at avoiding a default today after 12 hours of meetings at the office of a court-appointed mediator failed to produce a deal that would allow it to make interest payments. Any default by Argentina could trigger bondholder claims of as much as $29 billion, equal to the nation’s foreign-currency reserves.
South Korea’s Kospi (KOSPI) advanced 1 percent on speculation companies will pay higher dividends. The government will ask state-run companies to increase dividends, Korea Economic Daily reported.
Ghana’s cedi, this year’s worst-performing currency globally, weakened after the government said it’s not considering an International Monetary Fund loan. The currency fell as much as 6.4 percent to 3.67 per dollar, extending its year-to-date decline to 31 percent.
The krona tumbled after a report showed Sweden’s economy expanded less than analysts estimated last quarter as imports grew faster than exports. The currency slid 0.4 percent to 6.8835 per dollar and touched 6.9007, its weakest level since July 2012.
Aluminum, Oil
The euro slipped less than 0.1 percent to $1.3404 and reached $1.3395, the lowest rate since November.
The yield on 30-year Treasuries was at 3.23 percent after falling to 3.22 percent yesterday, the lowest since June 2013. The 10-year rate was at 2.47 percent. The U.S. is scheduled to sell $15 billion of two-year floating-rate notes and $29 billion of seven-year fixed-rate securities today.
Aluminum jumped 0.8 percent. Aluminum’s shift into a supply shortage means prices will climb to the highest versus copper since 2009, according to Natixis SA. West Texas Intermediate oil rose to $101.38 a barrel. Crude inventories probably shrank 1.25 million barrels last week, analysts in a Bloomberg survey said before a U.S. government report today.
To contact the reporters on this story: Jonathan Burgos in Singapore at jburgos4@bloomberg.net; Shelley Smith in London at ssmith118@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Justin Carrigan at jcarrigan@bloomberg.net Shelley Smith