WSJ: U.S. Government Bonds Gain on Concerns Over Scotland, Ukraine
Treasury bonds were off to a strong start this week as fresh signs of uneven global economic growth and geopolitical risks in Europe boosted demand for ultrasafe U.S. government debt.
In recent trading, the benchmark 10-year note was 9/32 higher, yielding 2.428%, according to Tradeweb. Yields fall as prices rise.
That yield is near its lowest level since June 2013. It was at around 3% at the start of the year.
Investors confronted some negative developments in Asia and Europe. Japan's economic growth contracted by an annualized pace of 7.1% in the April-to-June quarter from the previous three-month period. European Union leaders are drawing up new sanctions against Russia amid ongoing tensions in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, investors are fretting about the risk of Scotland bolting from the U.K. and its implications for Europe's politics and economy.
The British pound fell to the lowest level since November against the U.S. dollar after a poll over the weekend showed that the number of those favoring Scottish independence had eclipsed those opposing a split for the first time since the referendum campaign began.
"All these factors are leading to the risk-off trade which sent Treasury yields lower,'' said Larry Milstein, head of government and agency trading at R.W. Pressprich Co. in New York. "A yes vote for Scottish independence would give rise to a significant pickup in uncertainty and the possibility for a substantial drop in investors' confidence."
Guy Haselmann, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at Bank of Nova Scotia BNS.T +0.12% in New York, said "a Scottish yes vote could encourage separatist movements across Europe and beyond, providing a boost to the safe-haven status of Treasurys and the U.S. dollar,'' and the recent shift in the polls toward independence has fueled this concern.
Monday's bond-price strength is the latest illustration of how overseas factors continue to support demand for U.S. government bonds even as prices have soared since the start of the year.
Geopolitical risks, uneven global growth and fresh stimulus from the European Central Bank have sent U.S. yields lower even as a run of data over recent months have bolstered optimism that the U.S. economy has picked up speed from the winter doldrums, while the Federal Reserve is moving closer to raising interest rates sometime next year.
Bond bears appeared to gain some ground last week as bond yields rose on reports that both activities in the U.S. manufacturing and service industries accelerated to multiyear highs. While Friday's nonfarm jobs report showed that fewer-than-forecast 142,000 new jobs were added last month, investors and traders said it won't alter the trend of the steady employment growth exhibited over the past few months.
The 10-year yield rose by 0.11 percentage point last week, the biggest weekly gain in three months.
But over the past few months, better U.S. data have failed to push up Treasury yields sustainably. U.S. bonds offer superior yields to global investors compared with their counterparts from Germany, France, Japan and Canada. The 10-year Treasury note's yield is also higher than corresponding maturities in Spain, Italy and Ireland.
Analysts said demand from investors seeking a relative bargain in U.S. bonds could keep a lid on U.S. bond yields.
Meanwhile, the bond market also faces looming new debt sales. A $27 billion sale of three-year Treasury notes is due Tuesday, followed by a $21 billion sale of 10-year notes on Wednesday, and a $13 billion sale of 30-year bonds on Thursday.