Russian industrial output unexpectedly shrank for the first time in 10 months as the country’s biggest currency crisis since 1998 spilled over to manufacturing.
Output at factories, mines and utilities fell 0.4 percent in November from a year earlier after a 2.9 percent increase in October, the Federal Statistics Service in Moscow said today in an e-mailed statement. The median estimate of 21 economists in a Bloomberg survey was for a 1.2 percent gain.
The contagion from the collapse of the ruble is spreading to manufacturing, dealing another blow to an economy on the brink of its first recession since 2009. The world’s biggest energy exporter is buckling under the weight of sanctions imposed over the conflict in Ukraine as oil prices plunged near the lowest in five years, with the central bank forced to increase its key interest rate five times since March.
“The impact of the sharp currency depreciation following the decline in oil prices is likely to have distorted the ordinary behavior of the economic agents once again,” Vladimir Kolychev, chief economist for Russia at VTB Capital in Moscow, said in an e-mailed report before the data release.
Manufacturing fell 3 percent in November from a year earlier after a 3.6 percent increase in October. Mining grew 2.5 percent while production at utilities rose 7 percent.
The ruble, which has depreciated more than 45 percent this year against the dollar, is the worst performer after Ukrainian hryvnia among more than 170 currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The currency weakened 2.9 percent against the dollar as of 3:38 p.m. in Moscow.
To contact the reporter on this story: Olga Tanas in Moscow at otanas@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Balazs Penz at bpenz@bloomberg.net Paul Abelsky, Scott Rose
