The cycle of accumulation and distribution defines cause (building) within a broader mark down phase. A growing majority sees the countertrend rally as the end of mark down (bear market) and beginning of mark up (bull market). Conversely, a dwindling minority cites hedge funds losing faith, fundamentals, or similar as reasons why the rally is doomed. These interpretations, mostly opinion driven, are premature. Investors that follow opinion often chase their tails in timing. They must follow the message of the market driven by the invisible hand. Oil's countertrend rally, defined by the flow of price, leverage, and time, represents cause building necessary to jump the creek of resistance or break the ice of support. Trend Positive trend oscillators define an up impulse and rally from 53.23 to 60.34 since the second week of April (chart 1). The bulls control the trend until this impulse is reversed. A weekly close above 59.52 jumps the creek and extends the countertrend rally within cause (see chart 2A also). A close below 45.89 confirms continuation of mark down.

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