HF: Precious Metals Fundamental Analysis – July 2, 2015 – Forecast – Gold, Silver & Platinum
Gold continued to decline falling $1.40 to trade at 1170.40 while Silver dipped 11 points to 15.570 and Platinum added $4.50 as the metals soared in opposite directions. Gold hovered above a near four-week low due to a stronger dollar and hopes of progress in the Greek debt crisis after reports that the country would accept most conditions from its international creditors.
The crisis has failed to spark robust safe-haven bids for gold, with bullion investors still focused on an expected increase in US interest rates after more strong economic data.
“It’s not clear whether it’s good for gold because people think the dollar might rally and institutional investors are less interested in the gold market,” Macquarie analyst Matthew Turner said.
“Everyone says this crisis should be good for gold, but no one has made a convincing case on who should be buying gold … Greeks are going to hold euros.”
Bullion typically sees safe-haven bids during times of financial and economic uncertainties. But gold’s underperformance points to much broader weakness as investors gear up for rising US rates this year.
There is still scope for the crisis to drive more risk-averse money into gold, if it worsens to the point where Greece leaves the euro zone, or if there is contagion into other economies in the bloc, such as Italy, Portugal or Spain.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.