ST: Dollar Edges Higher as Market Absorbs US Retail Sales Data
Yields fall as prices rise. However, not everything is as good as it seems, and a still sizable number of economistsis arguing in favor of postponing any interest rate hike at least until the end of the yearstrong>, in order to give the Federal Reserve time to assess the negative impacts of China and the strong dollarstrong>. We won't hear the Fed's decision on when to raise interest rates until later this week. However, economists and analysts are divided over whether or not the Fed will raise rates at its two-day meeting starting Wednesday. That would push up yields as traders anticipate that policy makers will have to adopt a more aggressive approach to lifting interest rates than the gradual path Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen has stressed. "It's not feasible for the FOMC to get the timing of the start absolutely right", said Lam, who predicts the Fed will lift rates this week. "Long-term bonds may actually benefit if investors see the hike as a policy mistake that would hurt the US growth outlook", said Priya Misra, head of global rates strategy at TD Securities in New York. The yield was 2.173% at the end of a year ago. Tuesday morning, buyers began promoting Treasurys after a batch of combined financial knowledge provided a hazy take a look at the state of the USA financial system. The worldwide Monetary Fund warned this month against a "premature" increase in U.S. interest rates as the slowdown in Chinese growth and the ensuing commodities price collapse ripples through the world economy, and emerging economies in particular. When interest rates are higher, the present value of a company's future earnings and dividends will be correspondingly lower. The Fed decision will be crucial for money policies too. The World Bank paper said although most expected a smooth tightening cycle from the Fed, there was a risk of a substantial hit to capital flows if investors started to expect more aggressive hikes and drove up long-term bond yields. "My sense is that people are not very exposed either way" in the bond market, said Jim Caron, global fixed-income portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, with $403 billion in assets under management at the end of June. On the contrary, they told me, the stock market's fair value will be almost the same regardless of whether the rate increase comes this week, or in December, or sometime next year or even thereafter. Debelle spoke to the Actuaries Institute banking in Sydney and said the move was a depreciation "not all that big in the general scheme of exchange rate moves", Debelle said, noting that it came in the context of a more than 15% appreciation of the renminbi in trade-weighted terms over the past year. The odds were 41% a month ago. Steelers Lounge http://steelerslounge.com/2015/09/dollar-edges-higher-as-market-absorbs-us-retail-sales-data/8973/