BLBG: Bonds Jump With Gold as Dollar Sinks on U.S. Retail Sales, PPI
Crude near $44 on speculation OPEC will seek to prop up prices
Growth in Europe slows, with Italian GDP disappointing
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Bonds jumped, gold rallied and a gauge of the dollar reached a seven-week low after reports showed sales at U.S. retailers were little changed in July and wholesale prices unexpectedly fell by the most in almost a year.
Treasury 10-year note yields dropped below 1.5 percent after the data, gold climbed the most in two weeks and the dollar dropped versus most of its major counterparts as traders pushed back bets on when the Federal Reserve will next raise interest rates. The MSCI All Country World Index of stocks rose to a one-year high, boosted by increases in oil prices. Norway’s krone led the currencies of crude-exporting nations higher.
Equities and bonds are both higher on the week, buoyed by optimism central banks will retain or enhance supportive policies as the economy expands, but at a subdued pace. Data out of Europe Friday showed a 0.3 percent increase in euro-area gross domestic product, with growth in Italy grinding to a halt. Monetary authorities in Australia, New Zealand and the U.K. cut benchmark interest rates to records this month, while the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank are using unprecedented stimulus to spur expansion. In oil, speculation that informal OPEC talks next month will stabilize the market buoyed prices.
Bonds
Treasury 10-year note yields sank seven basis points to 1.49 percent as of 8:53 a.m. New York time as bonds surged around the world.
U.K. gilts extended a fourth weekly gain, as the Bank of England’s first week of its expanded bond buying plan drew to a close. The central bank has left its quantitative-easing shopping list broadly unchanged for next week, even after it failed to attract enough sellers of gilts due in more than 15 years to hit its purchase target at an operation on Tuesday. The yield on 10-year gilts touched a record-low 0.508 percent.
Spanish and Italian government bonds also headed for their fourth weekly advance. The yield on Spain’s 10-year security was at 0.93 percent, after touching a record-low 0.913 percent on Thursday.
China’s 10-year bonds yielded 2.66 percent, the least in data going back to 2006.
Germany’s economy expanded 0.4 percent in the second quarter, slowing from a 0.7 percent expansion in the previous three months, data showed Friday. In Italy, preliminary figures showed gross domestic product unchanged, disappointing forecasts for growth of 0.2 percent.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped 0.4 percent to the lowest level since June 24. The greenback slid 0.9 percent to 101.07 yen and declined 0.8 percent to $1.1221 per euro.
Norway’s krone extended gains, taking its appreciation this week to 4.3 percent, the best performance among major currencies and its biggest gain since 2011. The currencies of Mexico and Canada, which like Norway are also oil-exporting nations, rose 3.1 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index was little changed. The yuan weakened 0.1 percent on Friday as Chinese data from factory output to investment suggested an economic recovery may be losing momentum. Official data for industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment all fell short of economists’ estimates.
The ruble pared its weekly gain to 0.7 percent and bonds declined as investors speculated a flare-up in tensions in Ukraine may lead to tougher sanctions against Russia.
One-month forwards for Thailand’s baht fell for the first time this week after a spate of bombings in tourist destinations including Hua Hin and Phuket that killed at least two people. The nation’s financial markets were shut Friday for a holiday.
Commodities
Gold rallied 1.2 percent to $1,354.21 an ounce, silver climbed by a similar magnitude and platinum and palladium also advanced after the U.S. data.
Crude was little changed at $43.50 a barrel in New York, headed for a 4 percent weekly jump. Informal discussions being held next month between members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC producers may include possible action to stabilize the market, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said in a statement, according to media reports, including Reuters. Global markets will continue to rebalance this year, the International Energy Agency said.
“The Saudi comments gave the market some life,” said Jonathan Barratt, chief investment officer at Ayers Alliance Securities in Sydney. “The talk is all about pushing the price higher and the market will speculate on whether they can actually pull a deal together. Calls from the IEA that the glut will start to shrink and consumption will pick up are also supportive.”
Stocks
MSCI’s global stocks gauge added 0.1 percent, heading for a weekly advance of 1.4 percent.
In Europe, A.P. Moeller Maersk A/S rose 3 percent after Denmark’s biggest company said it increased efficiencies in the second quarter, reporting earnings before interest and tax of $656 million, beating an estimate of $551 million.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.2 percent, after Thursday recouping its pre-Brexit level. The volume of shares changing hands was about 40 percent lower than the 30-day average at this time of day.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index climbed 0.2 percent, extending the advance since Aug. 5 to 2.7 percent in the fifth week of gains and the longest run since March 2014. Chinese stocks led the advance on Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index climbing 1.6 percent as stake purchases by China Evergrande Group fueled optimism that the pace of merger activity in the property industry will accelerate.