MW: Oil edges higher as stocks rise; supply data ahead
Crude-oil futures edged higher Wednesday, rebounding from their steep decline in the previous session, boosted by rising U.S. stocks and some optimism about the economic stimulus plan.
Crude for March delivery rose 33 cents, or 0.9%, to $37.86 a barrel in electronic trading on Globex.
"Slightly higher equities and some hope for the signing of the U.S. stimulus package have provided a modicum of support after Tuesday's $2-plus dive, though new forecasts from the IEA, which predicts nearly one million barrels per day drop in demand over 2009, have limited gains," said analysts at Action Economics.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 28 points, or 0.4%.
Congressional leaders expressed optimism that a compromise bill ironing out key differences between the versions of economic-stimulus legislation passed by the House and the Senate can be quickly agreed on, the Washington Post reported Wednesday.
A first draft of the final bill could be circulated as soon as later on Wednesday, the Post reported, citing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.
On Tuesday, oil prices fell 5.1%, tracking equity markets lower amid disappointment over the Treasury's new plan to help the ailing financial sector.
IEA cuts demand forecast
The Paris-based International Energy Agency again revised lower its 2009 forecast for global oil demand, this time by 570,000 barrels a day to 84.7 million barrels a day. This would mark a 1.1% drop from 2008 levels.
It cited a worsening economic outlook across all regions, particularly in Europe, the former Soviet Union and Asia.
"While current OPEC supply curbs will eventually begin to clear the onshore stock overhang, significant volumes of 'floating' oil could dampen any upward price momentum in the short term," the IEA added.
Daily crude-oil output for January among the 12 nations that belong to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries declined by 930,000 barrels to an average of 28.97 million barrels, according to a Tuesday survey by Platts.
OPEC's production is running just shy of 1.7 million barrels a day above its target of nearly 24.85 million barrels a day. The cartel agreed in December to revise members' quota levels, which came into effect in January.
"The question now is whether ministers meeting in Vienna in just a month's time will be willing to give the current agreement time to work or whether there will be calls for new cuts," said John Kingston, global director of oil at Platts. OPEC is next scheduled to meet on March 15 in Vienna.
Supply data ahead
The Energy Information Administration will release its report on U.S. petroleum inventories for last week at 10:30 a.m. Eastern time.
Analysts expect commercial crude-oil stocks to have risen by 3.4 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 6, according to a Platts survey. Analysts also project an increase in gasoline inventories of 900,000 barrels as well as a decline of 1.8 million barrels in distillate stocks, the survey showed. Refinery utilization's expected to inch down by half a percentage point to 83%.
"After the API reported surprise draws in crude stocks yesterday, some market participants are repositioning themselves for a potential surprise draw in crude stocks in today's EIA report," said Nimit Khamar, analyst at Sucden Financial Research.
Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute pegged the week's drop in crude stockpiles at nearly 2 million barrels, putting total U.S. inventories at 344.25 million barrels for the week ended Feb. 6.
As for motor gasoline, stockpiles fell by 2.9 million barrels, while distillates rose by 853,000 barrels on the week, API said.
Also on Globex, March reformulated gasoline rose 4 cents, or more than 3%, to $1.28 a gallon and March heating oil gained 2 cents to $1.32 a gallon.
Natural gas for March delivery fell 4 cents to $4.50 per million British thermal units.