Industrial production probably fell in February for the sixth time in seven months as cutbacks at automakers and collapsing exports rippled across the U.S., economists said before a report today. The Federal Reserve may report that output at factories, mines and utilities dropped 1.3 percent last month, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Other figures may show manufacturing and homebuilding remained depressed this month. The worst financial crisis in seven decades has choked off credit to consumers and businesses worldwide, leading to a slump in sales of cars, houses, airplanes and computers. Boeing Co. and United Technologies Corp. are among companies that have announced thousands of jobs will be cut to trim costs as the global economy contracts. “We doubt a consumer-led recovery is very likely and firms continue to cut spending on new investment projects,” said Zach Pandl, an economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. “Firms likely cut output further.” The Fed’s output report is due at 9:15 a.m. in Washington. Estimates by the 57 economists surveyed ranged from a decline of 2.2 percent to a 0.3 percent drop. The proportion of plants in use probably dropped to 71 percent, the lowest since 1982, according to the survey median. A Fed Bank of New York report at 8:30 a.m. may show manufacturing in that region shrank this month at the second- fastest pace since data began in 2001. The so-called Empire State index probably improved to minus 30.8 from February’s record-low minus 34.7. Housing Slump At 1 p.m., the National Association of Homebuilders may say its builder confidence index held at 9 in March for a second month after dropping to a record-low of 8 in January, according to the survey median. The auto industry is at the epicenter of the manufacturing slump. Auto sales in February slid 41 percent to the lowest rate since December 1981, according to Autodata Corp., led by a 53 percent drop for General Motors Corp. GM last month announced the closings of five more U.S. plants by 2012 as it cuts production to match dwindling demand. “This remains a very challenged industry that is the reflection of the severe economic crisis,” Mike DiGiovanni, chief auto market analyst at GM, said on a conference call last week. GM is asking for as much as %16.6 billion in federal loans, in addition to $13.4 billion already granted, to survive while it restructures. Record Low After plummeting 23 percent in January to the lowest level since records began in 1967, vehicle assemblies probably improved last month, economists said. Still, the cutbacks are reverberating through the economy. Pittsburgh-based PPG Industries Inc., the world’s second- biggest paint maker, last week said it will cut an additional 2,500 jobs because of the decline in auto sales. Others are suffering from slumping demand, both here and abroad. American exports plunged in January to the lowest level since 2006, according to figures from the Commerce Department last week. The drop reflected falling sales of automobiles, semiconductors, telecommunications gear and drilling equipment. Boeing is slashing about 10,000 jobs and has said it could cut production by about 10 percent next year if more bookings are deferred or canceled. The Chicago-based plane maker has won just 22 orders this year, down from 190 by this time in 2008, and has logged 32 cancellations. Job Cuts United Technologies, the maker of Otis elevators and Carrier air conditioners, said last week it plans to cut 11,600 jobs as sales slow. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg say the economy may shrink at a 5.2 percent pace in the current quarter after a 6.2 percent contraction in the previous three months that was the worst since 1982. “Reports on manufacturing activity suggested steep declines in activity in some sectors and pronounced declines overall” in January and February, the Fed said March 4 in its latest regional business survey. “The drop in activity was especially pronounced for makers of capital goods and construction-related equipment and materials.” Bloomberg News =========================================================== Empire Ind. Cap. NAHB Manu. Prod. Util. Housing Index MOM% % Index =========================================================== Date of Release 03/16 03/16 03/16 03/16 Observation Period March Feb. Feb. March ----------------------------------------------------------- Median -30.8 -1.3% 71.0% 9 Average -31.9 -1.2% 71.0% 9 High Forecast -25.0 -0.3% 72.0% 11 Low Forecast -40.0 -2.2% 70.0% 8 Number of Participants 45 68 59 37 Previous -34.7 -1.8% 72.0% 9 ----------------------------------------------------------- 4CAST Ltd. -30.0 -1.6% --- --- Action Economics -29.0 -0.8% 71.5% 9 Aletti Gestielle SGR -30.0 -1.0% 71.2% --- Ameriprise Financial Inc -30.0 -1.4% 71.1% 9 Argus Research Corp. -40.0 -1.3% 70.7% --- Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi -39.2 -1.4% 70.5% 8 Bantleon Bank AG -28.0 -0.9% --- --- Barclays Capital -34.0 -0.7% 71.5% 9 BBVA -36.1 -1.6% 71.2% 8 BMO Capital Markets -25.0 -0.3% 71.8% 9 BNP Paribas -37.0 -1.9% 70.6% --- Calyon -36.0 -1.1% 71.0% --- Castlestone Management LT --- -1.4% 71.0% --- CIBC World Markets --- -0.6% 72.0% 9 ClearView Economics -30.0 -1.0% 70.9% 8 Commerzbank AG -32.0 -1.6% 70.9% --- Credit Suisse --- -0.3% 71.5% --- Daiwa Securities America --- -1.0% 71.2% --- Danske Bank --- -0.9% --- 9 DekaBank -28.0 -1.5% 70.9% 9 Desjardins Group -30.0 -1.4% 71.1% --- Deutsche Bank Securities -34.0 -1.5% 70.5% 9 Deutsche Postbank AG --- -1.3% --- --- DZ Bank -36.0 -1.4% 70.8% 9 First Trust Advisors -25.0 -1.2% 70.9% --- Fortis -30.0 -1.0% --- 9 Goldman, Sachs & Co. --- -1.1% 71.2% --- Helaba --- -1.0% 71.0% 9 Herrmann Forecasting -29.8 -1.3% 71.1% 8 Horizon Investments -30.0 -1.5% 70.0% 10 HSBC Markets -30.0 -1.4% 70.9% 9 IDEAglobal -32.0 -1.2% 70.8% --- IHS Global Insight --- -0.8% --- --- Informa Global Markets -31.5 -1.4% 71.2% 9 ING Financial Markets -30.8 -1.4% --- 9 Insight Economics -34.0 -1.3% 70.7% --- Intesa-SanPaulo -30.0 -1.4% 71.0% 9 J.P. Morgan Chase -30.0 -0.5% 71.6% 9 Janney Montgomery Scott L --- -1.5% 70.8% --- JPMorgan’s Private Wealth -32.0 -1.5% 70.7% 10 Landesbank Berlin --- -1.5% 70.7% --- Lloyds TSB -35.0 -1.5% 70.8% 9 Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc --- -1.5% 70.8% 9 Merrill Lynch -36.0 -1.6% 71.0% 8 MFC Global Investment Man --- -1.0% 71.2% 9 Moody’s Economy.com -33.3 -1.0% 71.2% 11 Morgan Stanley & Co. --- -1.0% 71.4% --- National Bank Financial --- -1.0% 71.2% --- Natixis --- -1.4% 71.1% --- Newedge -36.0 -1.6% --- 9 Nomura Securities Intl. -30.0 -1.6% 70.8% --- Nord/LB -30.0 -1.0% 71.2% 8 PNC Bank --- -1.0% 70.9% --- Raymond James --- -2.2% 70.2% --- RBS Greenwich Capital --- -1.1% 71.3% --- Ried, Thunberg & Co. -30.0 -0.5% 71.7% --- Scotia Capital --- -0.9% 71.0% 10 Societe Generale -28.0 -1.2% 71.1% --- Stone & McCarthy Research -34.0 -1.7% 70.6% 10 TD Securities -32.0 -2.0% 71.0% 9 Thomson Reuters/IFR -36.0 -1.0% 71.1% 8 Unicredit MIB --- -1.5% 71.0% --- University of Maryland --- -1.0% 71.3% 8 Wachovia Corp. --- -1.0% 71.5% --- Wells Fargo & Co. -29.0 -0.8% 71.4% 9 WestLB AG -32.5 -1.2% 71.1% 9 Westpac Banking Co. -34.0 -2.0% --- --- Wrightson Associates -30.0 -0.7% 71.5% 10 ===========================================================

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